***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** mxt1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama mxt2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anmx2t: prognozirana anomalija, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctmxt: prognoziran percentil u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala apcmxt: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 20.08.2015. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 14.09.2015.-20.09.2015. ************************************************************** ghid t<33 33<=t<=66 t>66 mxt1 mxt2 eavg anmx2t pctmxt avpmxt 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 58 42 0 100 20.9 22.3 23.7 -0.7 41.0 42.4 21.5 23.1 24.7 25 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 57 43 0 100 21.2 22.6 23.8 -0.7 41.5 42.7 21.7 23.4 24.9 30 Becej 27400G00 57 43 0 100 21.4 22.7 23.7 -0.7 41.1 42.3 21.9 23.5 25.1 30 Beograd 28900G14 0 75 25 100 17.5 15.6 21.9 -0.9 38.2 39.7 15.1 16.8 18.4 30 Crni Vrh 38400G13 52 48 0 100 22.2 23.3 22.1 -0.7 41.0 42.2 22.5 24.2 25.8 30 Cuprija 39700G22 0 79 21 100 24.1 23.3 20.8 -0.1 48.1 48.2 21.9 23.5 25.0 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 58 42 0 100 20.9 22.3 23.7 -0.6 42.0 43.2 21.4 23.0 24.6 30 Kikinda 37800G18 0 77 23 100 13.8 13.1 21.2 -0.1 48.3 48.4 11.8 13.3 14.6 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 53 47 0 100 21.9 23.2 22.6 -0.6 42.6 43.5 22.2 23.9 25.4 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 0 75 25 100 24.4 23.1 21.5 -0.4 44.5 45.1 22.0 23.7 25.3 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 0 75 25 100 24.8 23.6 22.1 -0.4 44.4 45.2 22.5 24.1 25.6 30 Krusevac 38200G21 0 77 23 100 24.2 23.4 22.2 -0.1 48.2 48.4 21.9 23.5 25.1 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 0 78 22 100 25.3 24.3 21.7 -0.3 46.5 46.8 23.0 24.6 26.2 30 Leskovac 26200G08 52 48 0 100 21.5 22.7 22.0 -0.7 41.3 42.3 21.8 23.5 25.2 30 Loznica 29500G14 54 46 0 100 22.5 23.3 22.3 -0.8 38.4 39.7 22.8 24.3 25.7 30 Negotin 38800G20 0 77 23 100 25.7 24.5 22.0 -0.4 44.4 45.1 23.4 25.0 26.6 30 Nis 06700G01 59 41 0 100 20.3 21.3 23.0 -1.0 37.2 39.2 20.8 22.5 24.0 30 Palic 37000G16 52 48 0 100 20.9 22.2 20.7 -0.5 43.2 44.0 21.2 22.8 24.3 30 Pozega 16800G06 55 45 0 100 21.1 22.4 23.9 -0.6 42.1 43.1 21.5 23.2 24.7 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 0 76 24 100 19.8 18.9 18.9 -0.3 46.1 46.8 17.7 19.2 20.6 30 Sjenica 27900G10 57 43 0 100 21.8 23.1 23.2 -0.7 41.1 42.3 22.3 23.9 25.3 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 56 44 0 100 20.9 21.9 23.0 -1.0 37.6 39.5 21.4 23.2 24.8 30 Sombor 26600G07 0 75 25 100 24.1 22.7 23.8 -0.5 43.7 44.2 21.6 23.3 24.9 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 53 47 0 100 21.4 22.6 22.1 -0.6 41.8 42.6 21.8 23.4 25.0 30 Valjevo 28500G11 0 76 24 100 24.2 22.6 22.0 -0.8 39.5 40.9 21.9 23.5 25.0 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 0 77 23 100 25.2 24.1 21.8 -0.3 46.0 46.3 22.9 24.5 26.0 30 Vranje 18300G04 54 46 0 100 21.4 22.5 22.8 -0.7 40.9 42.3 21.8 23.4 24.9 30 Vrsac 39200G15 0 75 25 100 25.1 23.4 22.3 -0.7 39.6 40.8 22.8 24.4 25.9 30 Zajecar 36700G16 51 49 0 100 16.5 17.9 19.8 -0.5 44.0 44.8 16.8 18.5 20.0 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 56 44 0 100 21.1 22.4 23.9 -0.6 42.0 43.1 21.5 23.2 24.7 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.6-0.7 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------