***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** mxt1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama mxt2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anmx2t: prognozirana anomalija, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctmxt: prognoziran percentil u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala apcmxt: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 20.08.2015. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 24.08.2015.-20.09.2015. ************************************************************** ghid t<33 33<=t<=66 t>66 mxt1 mxt2 eavg anmx2t pctmxt avpmxt 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 59 41 0 100 23.8 24.2 25.3 -0.8 35.5 39.1 24.1 25.0 25.8 25 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 61 39 0 100 23.8 24.1 25.3 -1.0 32.2 36.2 24.1 25.0 25.9 30 Becej 27400G00 60 40 0 100 24.0 24.3 25.4 -0.9 34.4 38.2 24.3 25.1 25.9 30 Beograd 28900G14 59 41 0 100 17.1 17.2 23.3 -1.1 29.4 34.4 17.4 18.3 19.1 29 Crni Vrh 38400G13 52 48 0 100 24.7 25.1 24.0 -0.7 37.3 41.1 24.9 25.7 26.5 30 Cuprija 39700G22 56 44 0 100 23.6 24.0 22.0 -0.7 35.3 39.6 23.8 24.7 25.6 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 58 42 0 100 23.6 23.9 25.2 -0.9 33.9 37.3 23.8 24.7 25.5 30 Kikinda 37800G18 55 45 0 100 13.3 14.1 22.8 -0.2 46.3 48.0 13.5 14.2 14.9 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 55 45 0 100 24.2 24.8 24.5 -0.5 41.0 43.9 24.4 25.3 26.1 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 55 45 0 100 24.0 24.7 23.2 -0.4 42.3 44.9 24.2 25.1 25.9 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 53 47 0 100 24.5 25.0 23.8 -0.5 40.4 43.7 24.7 25.5 26.3 30 Krusevac 38200G21 57 43 0 100 23.7 24.6 23.8 -0.2 45.3 47.3 24.0 24.8 25.7 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 60 40 0 100 24.7 25.4 23.4 -0.5 39.9 43.2 25.0 25.9 26.7 30 Leskovac 26200G08 60 40 0 100 23.8 24.2 23.7 -0.8 34.7 38.0 24.1 25.0 25.8 30 Loznica 29500G14 59 41 0 100 24.8 24.7 24.1 -1.2 27.6 32.7 25.0 25.9 26.6 30 Negotin 38800G20 60 40 0 100 25.2 25.8 23.6 -0.6 38.1 41.8 25.5 26.4 27.2 30 Nis 06700G01 66 34 0 100 22.9 23.0 24.5 -1.3 27.2 31.4 23.4 24.3 25.1 30 Palic 37000G16 57 43 0 100 23.2 23.7 22.2 -0.6 38.8 41.8 23.4 24.2 24.9 30 Pozega 16800G06 59 41 0 100 23.6 23.9 25.4 -0.9 33.3 37.2 23.9 24.8 25.7 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 57 43 0 100 19.3 20.0 20.4 -0.4 41.4 44.1 19.6 20.4 21.2 30 Sjenica 27900G10 54 46 0 100 24.3 24.7 25.1 -0.7 37.6 41.1 24.5 25.3 26.1 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 65 35 0 100 23.5 23.6 24.5 -1.3 27.1 31.3 23.9 24.8 25.7 30 Sombor 26600G07 56 44 0 100 23.8 24.3 25.4 -0.7 37.1 40.4 24.1 24.9 25.7 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 58 42 0 100 23.7 24.1 23.8 -0.7 36.5 39.7 24.0 24.8 25.5 30 Valjevo 28500G11 61 39 0 100 24.0 24.3 23.8 -0.9 33.4 37.4 24.3 25.2 26.1 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 58 42 0 100 24.5 25.1 23.3 -0.6 38.5 42.4 24.8 25.6 26.4 30 Vranje 18300G04 61 39 0 100 23.8 24.2 24.4 -0.8 35.0 38.6 24.1 25.0 25.8 30 Vrsac 39200G15 58 42 0 100 24.8 24.9 23.9 -1.1 29.4 34.5 25.1 25.9 26.7 30 Zajecar 36700G16 57 43 0 100 18.7 19.2 21.4 -0.5 39.4 42.3 18.9 19.7 20.4 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 61 39 0 100 23.6 24.0 25.5 -0.9 33.4 37.3 24.0 24.9 25.7 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.6-0.7 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------