***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** PAD1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama PAD2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anacp%: prognoziran procenat od normale, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctacp: prognoziran percentil: srednjak ansambla u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala apcacp: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 20.08.2015. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 24.08.2015.-30.08.2015. ************************************************************** ghid p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 pad1 pad2 eavg anacp% pctacp avpacp 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 0 82 18 100 10.5 13.8 10.5 98.4 65.6 53.6 4.2 8.2 14.0 25 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 0 79 21 100 11.0 13.7 10.4 96.9 64.4 50.9 3.7 7.9 14.3 30 Becej 27400G00 0 84 16 100 11.8 20.2 11.5 116.1 70.2 60.7 3.6 8.8 17.1 30 Beograd 28900G14 54 46 0 100 4.6 17.4 11.5 110.0 68.4 45.9 4.1 8.7 15.9 29 Crni Vrh 38400G13 0 84 16 100 11.5 19.9 12.8 123.4 71.6 56.8 4.1 9.0 16.3 30 Cuprija 39700G22 56 44 0 100 3.6 12.9 9.9 103.4 66.7 47.6 3.3 6.9 12.5 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 54 46 0 100 3.7 9.3 9.6 85.0 60.0 44.1 3.4 6.6 11.2 30 Kikinda 37800G18 0 76 24 100 21.0 23.1 9.0 91.2 62.1 46.1 7.6 15.2 26.2 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 0 80 20 100 15.2 20.9 11.3 109.5 68.4 53.4 6.3 11.9 19.6 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 0 77 23 100 16.2 18.8 10.7 95.5 63.3 48.4 6.2 12.0 20.4 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 0 76 24 100 11.7 13.1 7.7 90.9 63.0 43.6 4.4 8.6 14.4 30 Krusevac 38200G21 0 75 25 100 9.9 11.8 7.4 97.3 64.8 45.4 3.1 6.8 12.5 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 0 84 16 100 10.1 17.1 10.4 119.9 70.9 58.2 3.4 7.7 14.2 30 Leskovac 26200G08 0 77 23 100 19.3 23.9 12.2 101.5 65.0 52.6 7.1 14.0 24.5 30 Loznica 29500G14 0 78 22 100 5.4 8.2 10.0 113.8 69.0 48.7 1.5 3.6 7.1 30 Negotin 38800G20 0 81 19 100 10.3 16.3 9.6 115.0 69.7 53.3 3.3 7.5 14.2 30 Nis 06700G01 0 78 22 100 11.4 14.0 11.1 102.0 65.5 49.9 4.7 8.8 14.2 30 Palic 37000G16 0 78 22 100 12.1 14.6 12.3 99.9 64.6 50.6 4.7 9.1 15.4 30 Pozega 16800G06 0 79 21 100 11.0 13.5 10.4 98.0 64.8 52.1 4.4 8.5 13.9 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 0 77 23 100 18.0 20.4 12.5 97.6 63.7 50.3 8.9 14.5 21.7 30 Sjenica 27900G10 0 79 21 100 12.9 17.8 10.6 106.4 67.7 52.4 4.4 9.4 16.7 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 0 79 21 100 13.1 14.7 10.4 91.2 62.2 49.8 5.8 10.3 16.4 30 Sombor 26600G07 0 79 21 100 13.2 16.0 9.7 95.3 63.9 51.7 4.6 9.6 17.4 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 0 78 22 100 17.2 20.9 11.1 98.1 64.3 50.7 6.6 12.8 22.1 30 Valjevo 28500G11 0 86 14 100 12.3 19.9 12.8 110.8 68.9 57.5 4.7 9.9 18.0 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 0 83 17 100 8.5 16.3 11.9 140.9 75.2 63.1 3.1 6.6 11.7 30 Vranje 18300G04 0 82 18 100 11.9 15.4 11.3 96.5 64.4 52.1 4.3 9.0 16.4 30 Vrsac 39200G15 0 78 22 100 8.2 12.9 11.0 120.5 71.0 50.5 2.6 5.8 10.7 30 Zajecar 36700G16 0 77 23 100 20.0 23.5 12.5 97.9 63.7 50.4 7.6 14.8 25.3 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 0 77 23 100 8.1 8.6 9.3 85.3 60.8 47.1 2.9 5.9 10.3 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ padavine > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.7-0.8 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ padavine < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.7-0.8 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------