***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** PAD1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama PAD2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anacp%: prognoziran procenat od normale, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctacp: prognoziran percentil: srednjak ansambla u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala apcacp: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 20.08.2015. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 31.08.2015.-06.09.2015. ************************************************************** ghid p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 pad1 pad2 eavg anacp% pctacp avpacp 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 58 42 0 100 3.7 12.0 9.7 99.6 65.6 43.3 3.6 7.1 12.3 25 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 54 46 0 100 3.3 11.1 10.6 106.0 67.2 46.0 2.9 6.0 10.6 30 Becej 27400G00 57 43 0 100 4.3 12.5 9.5 94.1 63.2 43.5 4.1 8.1 13.6 30 Beograd 28900G14 72 28 0 100 4.3 18.7 9.7 107.1 67.4 34.7 5.3 10.5 17.9 30 Crni Vrh 38400G13 60 40 0 100 3.8 13.3 9.9 99.1 65.4 41.2 3.7 7.7 13.6 30 Cuprija 39700G22 66 34 0 100 3.3 13.3 11.0 89.8 62.4 39.3 3.5 8.0 15.2 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 59 41 0 100 3.7 11.2 10.1 99.4 65.7 42.5 3.7 6.9 11.3 30 Kikinda 37800G18 64 36 0 100 7.4 20.4 8.9 80.0 58.4 36.5 8.1 15.4 25.8 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 58 42 0 100 4.2 11.5 9.5 87.5 61.9 39.3 4.2 7.9 13.0 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 61 39 0 100 4.7 12.7 9.7 79.7 58.2 36.3 4.7 9.6 16.6 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 63 37 0 100 3.6 12.3 7.4 91.4 63.4 37.7 3.7 7.6 13.5 30 Krusevac 38200G21 70 30 0 100 3.0 12.3 6.5 84.1 60.5 33.8 3.4 8.0 15.4 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 62 38 0 100 4.3 13.7 8.3 91.1 63.7 40.5 4.5 8.7 14.7 30 Leskovac 26200G08 61 39 0 100 3.7 12.4 12.5 97.5 63.9 39.7 3.6 7.6 13.3 30 Loznica 29500G14 63 37 0 100 2.1 11.8 10.0 120.0 71.3 40.8 2.1 4.9 9.6 30 Negotin 38800G20 58 42 0 100 4.4 14.6 8.1 98.9 65.8 41.1 4.2 8.5 14.7 30 Nis 06700G01 55 45 0 100 4.1 16.1 12.5 129.5 73.2 49.0 3.8 7.4 12.8 30 Palic 37000G16 65 35 0 100 4.1 10.9 10.5 73.5 54.2 34.5 4.4 9.3 16.6 30 Pozega 16800G06 56 44 0 100 4.0 12.8 10.0 99.9 65.4 44.2 3.8 7.6 13.2 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 0 77 23 100 13.5 14.0 14.3 88.1 60.3 45.9 4.3 9.5 17.4 30 Sjenica 27900G10 61 39 0 100 3.9 11.4 8.3 88.4 62.5 39.9 4.1 7.6 12.7 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 55 45 0 100 4.8 16.9 12.3 126.2 72.2 49.8 4.6 8.5 14.0 30 Sombor 26600G07 60 40 0 100 3.4 9.6 9.0 88.2 61.5 39.0 3.3 6.6 11.2 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 66 34 0 100 3.3 10.5 10.0 79.5 57.3 35.4 3.5 7.9 14.8 30 Valjevo 28500G11 57 43 0 100 4.1 14.5 11.6 108.3 68.0 47.0 3.9 7.8 13.6 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 57 43 0 100 3.1 10.4 6.9 88.6 62.7 39.5 2.8 6.3 11.7 30 Vranje 18300G04 58 42 0 100 3.9 12.9 11.1 100.4 66.0 44.6 3.8 7.5 12.9 30 Vrsac 39200G15 67 33 0 100 3.3 13.5 10.0 113.7 69.5 38.6 3.7 7.2 12.0 30 Zajecar 36700G16 58 42 0 100 6.0 16.8 11.8 82.0 57.7 39.6 5.5 12.3 22.8 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 63 37 0 100 3.9 12.6 9.3 92.4 63.2 39.2 4.1 8.2 13.8 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ padavine > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.7-0.8 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ padavine < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.7-0.8 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------