***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** PAD1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama PAD2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anacp%: prognoziran procenat od normale, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctacp: prognoziran percentil: srednjak ansambla u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala apcacp: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 20.08.2015. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 07.09.2015.-13.09.2015. ************************************************************** ghid p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 pad1 pad2 eavg anacp% pctacp avpacp 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 60 40 0 100 2.7 5.9 6.4 61.9 51.1 35.2 2.5 5.6 10.6 25 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 61 39 0 100 3.0 7.2 7.4 73.5 54.5 38.5 3.0 6.2 10.7 30 Becej 27400G00 60 40 0 100 2.8 5.4 6.4 59.8 47.9 35.4 2.7 6.0 11.1 30 Beograd 28900G14 63 37 0 100 3.4 12.0 9.9 91.4 62.8 38.1 3.2 7.4 13.7 30 Crni Vrh 38400G13 66 34 0 100 2.3 8.1 9.6 84.5 59.8 40.4 2.5 5.5 10.1 30 Cuprija 39700G22 58 42 0 100 2.7 7.0 12.6 79.3 58.5 38.7 2.7 5.2 9.1 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 66 34 0 100 2.6 7.9 7.8 75.6 55.7 37.2 2.6 6.2 11.8 30 Kikinda 37800G18 61 39 0 100 4.5 11.5 9.1 73.3 55.1 38.6 4.4 9.4 17.1 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 61 39 0 100 2.3 5.8 8.8 70.7 54.5 38.3 2.3 4.9 8.8 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 59 41 0 100 3.4 6.8 9.4 66.3 52.1 37.8 3.3 6.4 10.6 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 65 35 0 100 2.2 6.9 7.6 75.6 57.0 37.7 2.4 5.2 9.7 30 Krusevac 38200G21 66 34 0 100 2.9 8.0 7.3 79.1 58.2 37.6 3.2 6.2 10.2 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 62 38 0 100 2.3 6.3 9.2 76.8 57.6 38.4 2.3 4.7 8.4 30 Leskovac 26200G08 54 46 0 100 4.0 8.2 9.4 66.0 50.9 39.9 3.3 7.8 15.2 30 Loznica 29500G14 62 38 0 100 1.7 8.1 10.7 109.2 68.8 37.9 1.5 3.7 7.1 30 Negotin 38800G20 60 40 0 100 2.5 7.2 8.2 77.8 58.5 38.5 2.3 5.1 9.8 30 Nis 06700G01 62 38 0 100 2.9 9.9 8.8 88.0 60.3 40.9 2.8 6.5 12.2 30 Palic 37000G16 51 49 0 100 3.6 6.3 10.7 63.6 49.6 37.5 3.0 6.4 11.4 30 Pozega 16800G06 58 42 0 100 3.6 7.7 6.7 68.3 52.0 37.9 3.4 7.2 12.9 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 55 45 0 100 5.3 11.1 12.5 72.8 53.2 41.0 4.9 9.8 17.3 30 Sjenica 27900G10 63 37 0 100 2.9 6.8 7.2 67.3 53.3 35.8 3.1 6.0 10.4 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 61 39 0 100 3.7 10.4 8.6 83.4 58.4 42.3 3.6 7.7 13.5 30 Sombor 26600G07 55 45 0 100 2.9 5.5 6.3 61.3 49.7 37.3 2.5 5.6 10.3 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 56 44 0 100 2.9 5.5 8.7 60.0 48.3 36.0 2.4 5.9 11.6 30 Valjevo 28500G11 51 49 0 100 3.4 9.2 9.8 84.4 60.7 41.1 2.7 6.1 11.1 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 65 35 0 100 2.0 6.6 8.8 89.8 62.1 39.0 2.2 4.4 7.5 30 Vranje 18300G04 55 45 0 100 3.5 7.8 8.5 70.8 55.4 38.3 3.2 6.5 11.3 30 Vrsac 39200G15 62 38 0 100 1.9 6.9 10.1 94.1 64.1 37.4 1.9 4.0 7.4 30 Zajecar 36700G16 54 46 0 100 6.5 12.4 11.2 66.6 51.5 39.4 5.9 11.9 20.4 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 66 34 0 100 2.9 6.7 6.5 64.0 50.9 35.0 3.1 6.4 11.3 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ padavine > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.7-0.8 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ padavine < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.7-0.8 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------