***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** PAD1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama PAD2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anacp%: prognoziran procenat od normale, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctacp: prognoziran percentil: srednjak ansambla u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala apcacp: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 20.08.2015. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 14.09.2015.-20.09.2015. ************************************************************** ghid p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 pad1 pad2 eavg anacp% pctacp avpacp 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 64 36 0 100 4.4 16.5 7.3 102.6 66.1 43.6 4.8 9.5 16.3 25 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 63 37 0 100 4.3 15.6 8.7 110.1 67.4 42.1 4.6 8.9 14.9 30 Becej 27400G00 65 35 0 100 4.1 15.5 7.7 107.8 67.1 42.7 4.4 8.8 15.0 30 Beograd 28900G14 66 34 0 100 3.8 19.9 9.7 134.8 74.3 46.6 4.2 8.6 15.0 30 Crni Vrh 38400G13 64 36 0 100 3.5 18.5 10.1 141.0 75.6 47.4 3.7 7.6 13.3 30 Cuprija 39700G22 53 47 0 100 3.9 14.2 12.0 120.2 71.0 48.4 3.4 7.0 12.0 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 62 38 0 100 4.4 14.9 8.7 105.8 66.2 41.6 4.6 8.8 14.8 30 Kikinda 37800G18 55 45 0 100 6.6 31.7 11.3 156.6 78.7 48.3 6.1 12.1 20.8 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 58 42 0 100 4.8 20.3 9.7 127.1 72.7 45.1 4.6 9.3 16.2 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 53 47 0 100 5.5 19.3 11.0 136.7 74.6 47.4 5.2 9.4 15.0 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 62 38 0 100 4.2 19.3 9.2 156.8 78.8 46.7 4.5 8.1 13.1 30 Krusevac 38200G21 62 38 0 100 4.3 20.6 9.2 168.3 80.9 46.2 4.6 8.3 13.2 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 60 40 0 100 4.2 17.8 9.5 134.8 74.2 47.7 4.2 8.1 13.7 30 Leskovac 26200G08 57 43 0 100 5.8 17.6 9.0 91.5 62.4 44.9 5.3 11.2 20.0 30 Loznica 29500G14 59 41 0 100 3.0 15.6 8.8 139.2 75.2 44.9 2.8 6.2 11.1 30 Negotin 38800G20 62 38 0 100 2.9 14.9 9.1 146.0 76.6 47.8 3.0 6.0 10.5 30 Nis 06700G01 64 36 0 100 3.9 12.5 8.2 93.3 63.0 42.0 4.2 8.1 13.7 30 Palic 37000G16 51 49 0 100 6.3 20.3 10.8 112.5 69.0 47.8 5.6 10.9 18.5 30 Pozega 16800G06 64 36 0 100 4.4 15.9 8.3 110.7 67.6 41.9 4.8 9.1 15.1 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 52 48 0 100 7.4 23.0 13.4 117.3 70.0 49.8 6.8 12.5 20.4 30 Sjenica 27900G10 64 36 0 100 4.5 21.0 8.1 117.3 70.1 44.4 4.6 9.9 18.1 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 62 38 0 100 4.3 14.4 8.1 95.9 63.8 43.3 4.4 9.0 15.6 30 Sombor 26600G07 68 32 0 100 3.6 14.5 7.7 105.2 66.2 41.5 4.2 8.4 14.5 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 56 44 0 100 5.0 17.9 8.8 100.2 65.5 44.1 4.4 9.7 18.3 30 Valjevo 28500G11 60 40 0 100 5.0 17.0 8.3 103.3 66.2 46.6 4.9 9.8 16.8 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 59 41 0 100 4.3 18.3 8.0 139.5 75.2 47.1 4.4 8.2 13.7 30 Vranje 18300G04 62 38 0 100 4.4 16.8 8.1 99.0 65.0 44.7 4.4 9.6 17.5 30 Vrsac 39200G15 64 36 0 100 3.1 16.0 9.9 147.0 76.8 46.5 3.3 6.5 11.2 30 Zajecar 36700G16 0 76 24 100 21.1 26.7 10.7 104.1 66.7 48.4 8.4 15.7 26.0 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 66 34 0 100 3.8 14.7 8.3 110.4 67.5 41.1 4.3 8.4 14.1 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ padavine > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.7-0.8 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ padavine < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.7-0.8 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------