***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** PAD1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama PAD2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anacp%: prognoziran procenat od normale, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctacp: prognoziran percentil: srednjak ansambla u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala apcacp: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 20.08.2015. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 24.08.2015.-20.09.2015. ************************************************************** ghid p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 pad1 pad2 eavg anacp% pctacp avpacp 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 52 48 0 100 26.7 46.1 33.9 89.6 55.3 47.3 26.2 40.7 58.5 25 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 0 75 25 100 49.5 48.0 37.1 95.9 57.3 48.8 28.6 41.6 56.7 30 Becej 27400G00 0 76 24 100 53.5 50.4 35.0 92.8 56.0 49.3 27.4 43.4 63.7 30 Beograd 28900G14 0 75 25 100 58.3 66.4 40.8 108.7 64.5 52.3 29.5 46.9 69.0 29 Crni Vrh 38400G13 0 79 21 100 50.3 58.5 42.5 109.1 64.6 55.1 28.4 42.8 60.1 30 Cuprija 39700G22 54 46 0 100 23.2 45.9 45.5 95.3 58.7 49.6 23.0 37.1 54.4 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 58 42 0 100 26.6 44.3 36.3 90.5 55.0 46.6 28.0 40.2 54.5 30 Kikinda 37800G18 51 49 0 100 49.9 83.6 38.4 94.3 57.3 49.3 49.5 72.2 99.6 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 0 77 23 100 55.6 56.0 39.3 95.3 58.3 51.3 35.9 48.8 63.4 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 52 48 0 100 36.6 55.7 40.8 89.5 54.5 47.8 36.8 51.6 68.7 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 0 77 23 100 48.2 50.7 31.9 98.3 60.7 51.1 28.1 41.0 56.1 30 Krusevac 38200G21 0 75 25 100 49.3 52.5 30.4 101.2 61.9 51.5 27.0 40.7 57.3 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 0 75 25 100 47.2 50.5 37.4 101.6 61.9 53.5 23.1 37.6 55.8 30 Leskovac 26200G08 57 43 0 100 43.0 63.8 43.0 88.2 50.8 44.3 45.1 63.1 84.0 30 Loznica 29500G14 52 48 0 100 15.9 43.0 39.5 118.5 68.6 54.2 15.1 25.9 40.1 30 Negotin 38800G20 0 76 24 100 46.0 51.6 35.1 105.0 63.5 53.6 23.2 37.1 55.0 30 Nis 06700G01 0 77 23 100 50.5 54.3 40.6 103.2 62.1 52.3 29.7 43.2 58.8 30 Palic 37000G16 53 47 0 100 36.4 50.9 44.4 83.6 49.0 44.0 37.0 51.8 69.1 30 Pozega 16800G06 0 75 25 100 53.7 50.9 35.4 93.3 55.5 47.9 33.1 46.1 61.2 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 0 75 25 100 73.4 67.5 52.7 91.5 54.1 48.2 44.3 62.6 83.6 30 Sjenica 27900G10 0 76 24 100 55.3 54.0 34.2 92.7 57.5 49.9 30.6 46.1 64.6 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 0 79 21 100 56.0 57.7 39.5 98.8 59.3 51.3 34.9 49.0 65.3 30 Sombor 26600G07 56 44 0 100 30.5 45.7 32.8 86.2 51.0 45.1 31.6 44.7 60.1 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 54 46 0 100 39.7 55.1 38.7 81.8 47.6 42.7 40.7 57.6 77.6 30 Valjevo 28500G11 0 78 22 100 54.1 58.2 42.5 101.4 61.1 52.8 27.9 44.5 65.4 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 0 78 22 100 40.0 48.7 35.5 111.7 66.1 56.9 19.6 32.5 48.7 30 Vranje 18300G04 0 75 25 100 55.5 51.2 38.9 91.0 55.5 48.0 29.2 45.2 65.0 30 Vrsac 39200G15 0 76 24 100 39.9 47.6 41.0 115.9 67.5 54.5 23.0 33.6 46.3 30 Zajecar 36700G16 52 48 0 100 57.7 80.6 46.2 85.0 50.1 45.1 58.4 80.2 105.4 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 56 44 0 100 27.5 42.4 33.4 86.4 52.3 44.6 28.6 40.6 54.8 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ padavine > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.7-0.8 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ padavine < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.7-0.8 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------