***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** mnt1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama mnt2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anmn2t: prognozirana anomalija, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctmnt: prognoziran percentil u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala apcmnt: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 20.08.2020. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 24.08.2020.-30.08.2020. ************************************************************** ghid t<33 33<=t<=66 t>66 mnt1 mnt2 eavg anmn2t pctmnt avpmnt 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 78 22 0 100 13.0 13.2 16.6 -1.3 24.3 27.0 13.7 14.5 15.3 25 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 79 21 0 100 12.5 12.7 16.3 -1.3 24.5 27.1 13.2 14.2 15.1 30 Becej 27400G00 76 24 0 100 14.8 15.0 16.9 -1.2 25.6 28.2 15.5 16.5 17.4 30 Beograd 28900G14 0 76 24 100 12.4 11.5 14.8 -0.3 41.9 42.0 10.9 11.9 12.9 29 Crni Vrh 38400G13 55 45 0 100 11.8 12.0 15.3 -0.8 32.3 34.4 12.1 13.0 13.9 30 Cuprija 39700G22 0 81 19 100 12.3 12.1 13.2 0.0 51.1 51.1 11.3 12.0 12.8 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 79 21 0 100 12.8 13.0 16.4 -1.3 24.8 27.1 13.6 14.5 15.3 30 Kikinda 37800G18 0 79 21 100 8.0 7.3 13.1 -0.2 44.0 44.9 6.6 7.6 8.5 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 0 77 23 100 14.7 13.4 15.5 -0.7 34.1 36.1 13.4 14.3 15.2 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 0 80 20 100 14.3 13.7 13.9 -0.3 42.8 43.9 13.2 14.0 14.8 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 0 76 24 100 14.0 12.8 15.2 -0.7 34.4 36.3 12.8 13.6 14.4 30 Krusevac 38200G21 0 76 24 100 12.4 11.4 14.1 -0.5 36.7 38.6 11.2 12.0 12.8 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 0 80 20 100 13.3 12.6 14.1 -0.4 39.9 41.7 12.3 13.1 13.7 30 Leskovac 26200G08 0 78 22 100 15.0 14.1 15.2 -0.5 38.6 40.1 13.8 14.7 15.5 30 Loznica 29500G14 0 82 18 100 15.5 15.1 17.2 -0.2 46.0 46.2 14.4 15.2 16.0 30 Negotin 38800G20 0 79 21 100 14.9 14.1 14.7 -0.4 39.2 40.8 13.7 14.6 15.4 30 Nis 06700G01 81 19 0 100 13.2 13.4 15.9 -1.2 24.3 26.8 13.9 14.8 15.6 30 Palic 37000G16 0 80 20 100 12.7 12.1 13.3 -0.3 43.3 44.5 11.6 12.4 13.2 30 Pozega 16800G06 79 21 0 100 12.9 13.1 16.4 -1.3 24.5 27.1 13.6 14.5 15.3 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 0 78 22 100 8.9 8.5 11.6 -0.1 46.7 47.4 7.9 8.6 9.3 30 Sjenica 27900G10 58 42 0 100 12.8 13.0 16.4 -0.8 32.1 34.0 13.1 13.9 14.8 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 81 19 0 100 12.4 12.6 16.3 -1.2 24.1 27.0 13.0 13.8 14.5 30 Sombor 26600G07 74 26 0 100 12.5 12.7 16.5 -1.3 25.5 28.1 13.1 13.8 14.5 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 0 77 23 100 14.7 13.7 15.2 -0.6 37.2 39.0 13.5 14.4 15.2 30 Valjevo 28500G11 75 25 0 100 12.7 12.8 15.9 -1.2 25.7 28.3 13.3 14.1 14.9 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 0 81 19 100 13.5 12.9 13.2 -0.3 43.1 44.6 12.5 13.2 13.9 30 Vranje 18300G04 76 24 0 100 12.5 12.8 16.2 -1.2 26.0 28.5 13.3 14.4 15.5 30 Vrsac 39200G15 0 79 21 100 13.2 12.6 15.5 -0.2 44.4 44.7 12.1 12.9 13.7 30 Zajecar 36700G16 0 78 22 100 12.1 11.5 12.6 -0.2 45.1 46.2 10.8 11.7 12.7 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 79 21 0 100 12.9 13.0 16.6 -1.3 23.7 26.3 13.7 14.7 15.6 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.6-0.7 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------