***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** mnt1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama mnt2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anmn2t: prognozirana anomalija, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctmnt: prognoziran percentil u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala apcmnt: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 20.08.2020. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 31.08.2020.-06.09.2020. ************************************************************** ghid t<33 33<=t<=66 t>66 mnt1 mnt2 eavg anmn2t pctmnt avpmnt 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 62 38 0 100 11.2 11.5 15.5 -1.0 32.1 36.4 11.6 12.5 13.3 25 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 62 38 0 100 11.1 11.5 15.2 -0.9 33.0 36.4 11.5 12.4 13.3 30 Becej 27400G00 65 35 0 100 13.2 13.5 15.7 -1.0 31.0 35.3 13.7 14.6 15.5 30 Beograd 28900G14 59 41 0 100 8.5 9.1 13.4 -0.6 38.3 41.4 8.8 9.8 10.7 30 Crni Vrh 38400G13 62 38 0 100 10.0 10.3 13.6 -0.9 31.2 36.4 10.4 11.4 12.3 30 Cuprija 39700G22 59 41 0 100 9.6 10.0 11.7 -0.5 37.2 40.9 9.8 10.6 11.3 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 60 40 0 100 11.7 11.9 15.3 -0.9 33.0 36.5 11.9 12.7 13.5 30 Kikinda 37800G18 61 39 0 100 4.5 4.8 11.5 -0.7 33.2 38.4 4.8 5.8 6.6 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 59 41 0 100 11.3 11.5 13.6 -0.9 30.8 35.4 11.6 12.4 13.2 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 60 40 0 100 11.2 11.5 12.1 -0.8 33.4 37.8 11.5 12.4 13.2 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 67 33 0 100 10.8 11.0 13.2 -1.1 27.8 33.6 11.3 12.1 12.9 30 Krusevac 38200G21 63 37 0 100 9.3 9.6 12.3 -0.9 30.7 36.6 9.7 10.5 11.3 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 67 33 0 100 10.3 10.5 11.9 -1.0 28.1 34.5 10.8 11.6 12.4 30 Leskovac 26200G08 61 39 0 100 11.9 12.4 13.7 -0.6 37.0 39.5 12.2 13.0 13.8 30 Loznica 29500G14 58 42 0 100 12.7 13.1 15.2 -0.6 37.1 40.3 12.9 13.6 14.3 30 Negotin 38800G20 61 39 0 100 11.8 12.0 12.7 -0.9 30.7 36.3 12.1 13.0 13.7 30 Nis 06700G01 57 43 0 100 12.0 12.4 15.0 -0.7 35.8 38.2 12.2 13.0 13.8 30 Palic 37000G16 58 42 0 100 9.8 10.4 11.5 -0.6 36.8 40.5 10.1 11.1 12.0 30 Pozega 16800G06 64 36 0 100 11.4 11.7 15.3 -0.9 32.1 35.8 11.8 12.6 13.4 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 62 38 0 100 6.0 6.5 9.7 -0.6 36.3 41.5 6.4 7.2 8.0 30 Sjenica 27900G10 62 38 0 100 11.0 11.2 14.9 -0.9 31.8 36.1 11.3 12.2 13.0 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 59 41 0 100 11.2 11.5 15.2 -0.7 35.5 38.0 11.4 12.2 12.9 30 Sombor 26600G07 70 30 0 100 10.6 11.1 15.4 -1.0 31.6 35.6 11.2 12.1 13.0 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 59 41 0 100 11.5 11.9 13.6 -0.6 36.3 39.3 11.7 12.5 13.3 30 Valjevo 28500G11 63 37 0 100 11.2 11.5 14.5 -1.0 32.2 37.0 11.6 12.5 13.4 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 61 39 0 100 10.6 11.0 11.7 -0.7 35.0 39.5 10.9 11.6 12.4 30 Vranje 18300G04 61 39 0 100 11.0 11.5 15.1 -0.9 34.0 38.0 11.5 12.6 13.7 30 Vrsac 39200G15 56 44 0 100 10.4 10.9 13.9 -0.5 38.8 41.7 10.6 11.4 12.2 30 Zajecar 36700G16 61 39 0 100 8.5 8.9 10.9 -0.7 34.2 39.1 8.8 9.8 10.7 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 64 36 0 100 11.5 11.8 15.5 -1.0 31.5 35.5 11.9 12.8 13.7 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.6-0.7 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------