***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** mnt1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama mnt2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anmn2t: prognozirana anomalija, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctmnt: prognoziran percentil u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala apcmnt: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 20.08.2020. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 14.09.2020.-20.09.2020. ************************************************************** ghid t<33 33<=t<=66 t>66 mnt1 mnt2 eavg anmn2t pctmnt avpmnt 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 61 39 0 100 10.3 11.1 13.8 -0.6 40.2 42.0 10.7 11.7 12.6 25 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 58 42 0 100 9.5 10.4 13.5 -0.6 40.4 42.0 9.9 11.0 12.1 30 Becej 27400G00 56 44 0 100 12.0 12.8 14.0 -0.6 40.0 41.7 12.3 13.4 14.4 30 Beograd 28900G14 54 46 0 100 7.4 8.6 11.3 -0.2 46.2 46.5 7.7 8.9 10.0 30 Crni Vrh 38400G13 51 49 0 100 9.1 9.8 11.3 -0.6 40.5 42.3 9.3 10.4 11.5 30 Cuprija 39700G22 0 76 24 100 9.8 9.1 9.8 -0.2 45.4 46.6 8.3 9.4 10.3 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 59 41 0 100 10.1 10.9 13.6 -0.6 40.3 42.0 10.5 11.4 12.3 30 Kikinda 37800G18 0 81 19 100 5.6 4.8 9.7 -0.4 43.6 45.4 4.1 5.2 6.2 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 52 48 0 100 10.3 10.9 11.5 -0.6 40.6 42.2 10.5 11.4 12.3 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 0 79 21 100 11.4 10.7 10.3 -0.4 43.8 45.1 10.1 11.1 12.0 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 0 75 25 100 11.1 10.2 10.9 -0.5 41.1 42.9 9.8 10.7 11.5 30 Krusevac 38200G21 0 78 22 100 9.7 8.9 10.2 -0.5 41.6 43.4 8.4 9.3 10.2 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 0 76 24 100 10.3 9.5 9.4 -0.5 41.9 43.3 9.0 9.9 10.8 30 Leskovac 26200G08 0 76 24 100 12.0 11.1 11.7 -0.4 42.2 43.4 10.6 11.6 12.5 30 Loznica 29500G14 52 48 0 100 10.8 11.8 12.8 -0.1 48.6 48.3 11.0 11.9 12.8 30 Negotin 38800G20 51 49 0 100 10.2 11.0 10.3 -0.4 43.0 44.1 10.4 11.4 12.4 30 Nis 06700G01 57 43 0 100 10.4 11.0 13.3 -0.6 40.3 42.1 10.6 11.6 12.4 30 Palic 37000G16 0 81 19 100 10.2 9.6 9.5 -0.2 46.3 46.9 8.8 9.8 10.8 30 Pozega 16800G06 60 40 0 100 10.0 10.8 13.6 -0.6 40.0 41.6 10.3 11.3 12.3 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 0 81 19 100 6.3 5.9 7.7 -0.1 47.5 48.2 5.1 6.0 6.9 30 Sjenica 27900G10 57 43 0 100 9.8 10.5 12.9 -0.6 39.7 41.7 10.1 11.1 12.0 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 54 46 0 100 9.4 10.1 13.3 -0.5 41.0 42.6 9.6 10.6 11.5 30 Sombor 26600G07 58 42 0 100 9.3 10.1 13.6 -0.6 39.5 41.1 9.7 10.8 11.8 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 0 78 22 100 11.4 10.6 11.4 -0.4 43.6 44.4 10.0 11.0 11.9 30 Valjevo 28500G11 63 37 0 100 9.9 11.0 12.4 -0.5 41.6 43.3 10.4 11.6 12.6 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 0 77 23 100 10.5 9.8 9.5 -0.4 43.7 45.1 9.2 10.2 11.0 30 Vranje 18300G04 61 39 0 100 9.9 11.0 13.1 -0.6 41.4 42.9 10.4 11.7 13.0 30 Vrsac 39200G15 52 48 0 100 8.7 9.8 11.7 -0.1 48.3 48.1 8.9 9.9 10.9 30 Zajecar 36700G16 0 81 19 100 9.3 8.6 9.0 -0.2 46.0 46.9 7.7 8.9 10.0 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 60 40 0 100 10.2 11.0 13.8 -0.6 40.3 41.9 10.5 11.6 12.6 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.6-0.7 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------