***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** mnt1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama mnt2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anmn2t: prognozirana anomalija, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctmnt: prognoziran percentil u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala apcmnt: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 20.08.2020. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 24.08.2020.-20.09.2020. ************************************************************** ghid t<33 33<=t<=66 t>66 mnt1 mnt2 eavg anmn2t pctmnt avpmnt 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 62 38 0 100 11.8 12.0 15.3 -0.7 31.1 35.9 12.0 12.5 13.0 25 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 59 41 0 100 11.5 11.6 15.0 -0.6 31.8 36.1 11.7 12.3 12.8 30 Becej 27400G00 63 37 0 100 13.8 13.9 15.5 -0.7 30.6 35.2 14.0 14.5 15.0 30 Beograd 28900G14 0 75 25 100 10.3 9.8 13.1 -0.2 43.7 45.3 9.4 10.0 10.6 29 Crni Vrh 38400G13 57 43 0 100 10.6 10.7 13.2 -0.5 32.4 36.8 10.7 11.2 11.7 30 Cuprija 39700G22 0 79 21 100 10.5 10.3 11.5 -0.1 46.3 47.1 9.9 10.4 10.8 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 59 41 0 100 11.9 12.1 15.1 -0.6 32.1 36.3 12.1 12.6 13.0 30 Kikinda 37800G18 0 78 22 100 6.2 5.7 11.3 -0.3 40.6 43.8 5.5 6.0 6.4 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 56 44 0 100 11.9 12.0 13.4 -0.5 33.3 37.4 12.0 12.4 12.8 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 0 76 24 100 12.4 11.9 12.0 -0.3 40.2 43.2 11.8 12.2 12.6 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 59 41 0 100 11.2 11.3 12.9 -0.5 31.9 36.3 11.3 11.8 12.2 30 Krusevac 38200G21 53 47 0 100 9.8 9.9 12.1 -0.5 34.4 38.8 9.8 10.3 10.7 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 56 44 0 100 10.6 10.8 11.6 -0.4 34.1 38.7 10.7 11.2 11.6 30 Leskovac 26200G08 51 49 0 100 12.3 12.5 13.4 -0.3 39.6 42.5 12.3 12.8 13.2 30 Loznica 29500G14 0 77 23 100 13.4 13.1 14.9 -0.1 46.5 47.1 12.8 13.2 13.6 30 Negotin 38800G20 53 47 0 100 12.1 12.3 12.4 -0.4 36.1 39.8 12.2 12.6 13.1 30 Nis 06700G01 57 43 0 100 12.3 12.4 14.8 -0.6 33.5 37.5 12.4 12.8 13.3 30 Palic 37000G16 0 77 23 100 11.1 10.6 11.3 -0.2 43.7 46.1 10.3 10.8 11.4 30 Pozega 16800G06 62 38 0 100 11.8 12.0 15.1 -0.7 30.9 35.3 12.0 12.5 12.9 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 0 79 21 100 7.2 6.9 9.5 -0.1 46.7 48.9 6.5 7.0 7.5 30 Sjenica 27900G10 57 43 0 100 11.5 11.6 14.6 -0.6 32.8 37.3 11.6 12.0 12.5 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 59 41 0 100 11.3 11.5 14.9 -0.5 33.6 37.8 11.5 11.9 12.3 30 Sombor 26600G07 64 36 0 100 11.2 11.4 15.1 -0.7 30.7 35.1 11.4 11.9 12.4 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 53 47 0 100 11.8 12.0 13.3 -0.3 39.1 42.2 11.9 12.3 12.8 30 Valjevo 28500G11 60 40 0 100 11.7 11.9 14.2 -0.6 32.2 36.9 11.9 12.4 12.8 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 0 75 25 100 11.5 11.1 11.3 -0.3 40.4 44.0 10.9 11.4 11.8 30 Vranje 18300G04 58 42 0 100 11.8 12.0 14.8 -0.6 33.5 37.9 12.0 12.6 13.2 30 Vrsac 39200G15 0 76 24 100 11.2 10.9 13.6 -0.1 46.4 47.2 10.5 11.0 11.5 30 Zajecar 36700G16 0 77 23 100 10.1 9.7 10.7 -0.2 42.9 45.6 9.4 9.9 10.4 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 62 38 0 100 12.0 12.1 15.3 -0.7 30.7 35.2 12.2 12.7 13.2 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.6-0.7 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------