***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** mxt1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama mxt2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anmx2t: prognozirana anomalija, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctmxt: prognoziran percentil u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala apcmxt: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 20.08.2020. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 31.08.2020.-06.09.2020. ************************************************************** ghid t<33 33<=t<=66 t>66 mxt1 mxt2 eavg anmx2t pctmxt avpmxt 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 66 34 0 100 22.6 23.1 25.4 -1.5 30.8 36.0 23.3 24.8 26.2 25 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 62 38 0 100 22.8 23.2 25.4 -1.5 30.4 35.3 23.5 25.0 26.5 30 Becej 27400G00 65 35 0 100 22.9 23.4 25.7 -1.5 31.2 36.2 23.6 25.0 26.3 30 Beograd 28900G14 57 43 0 100 16.2 16.9 23.4 -1.0 36.9 41.5 16.5 17.8 19.0 30 Crni Vrh 38400G13 65 35 0 100 23.5 23.9 24.0 -1.6 29.8 35.9 24.2 25.6 26.8 30 Cuprija 39700G22 56 44 0 100 22.9 23.5 22.3 -1.0 36.2 41.6 23.2 24.5 25.6 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 64 36 0 100 22.5 23.1 25.4 -1.3 32.4 36.8 23.2 24.7 26.1 30 Kikinda 37800G18 59 41 0 100 12.1 12.5 22.5 -1.4 32.6 38.4 12.6 13.8 15.0 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 60 40 0 100 23.2 23.5 24.6 -1.5 30.9 36.3 23.7 25.1 26.4 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 58 42 0 100 23.1 23.6 23.2 -1.2 34.7 39.6 23.5 24.8 26.1 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 63 37 0 100 23.3 23.5 24.2 -1.8 28.4 34.8 23.9 25.3 26.6 30 Krusevac 38200G21 60 40 0 100 22.8 22.9 23.7 -1.7 29.0 35.6 23.3 24.6 25.9 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 65 35 0 100 23.8 23.8 23.5 -2.0 25.8 33.5 24.4 25.7 26.9 30 Leskovac 26200G08 56 44 0 100 23.0 23.7 24.3 -1.0 36.8 40.3 23.4 24.9 26.3 30 Loznica 29500G14 58 42 0 100 24.1 24.8 25.7 -0.9 37.9 42.1 24.4 25.7 26.8 30 Negotin 38800G20 62 38 0 100 24.3 24.5 23.9 -1.7 28.9 35.7 24.9 26.2 27.5 30 Nis 06700G01 62 38 0 100 22.3 22.8 25.0 -1.4 31.8 36.2 22.9 24.4 25.8 30 Palic 37000G16 57 43 0 100 22.2 22.9 22.4 -1.0 36.8 41.1 22.6 23.9 25.2 30 Pozega 16800G06 62 38 0 100 22.6 23.1 25.6 -1.4 31.8 36.3 23.2 24.8 26.2 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 60 40 0 100 18.4 19.1 20.5 -1.1 36.0 41.3 18.8 20.1 21.3 30 Sjenica 27900G10 59 41 0 100 23.3 23.7 25.3 -1.4 32.0 37.1 23.8 25.2 26.5 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 63 37 0 100 22.7 23.6 25.4 -1.0 36.5 39.6 23.3 24.8 26.3 30 Sombor 26600G07 57 43 0 100 22.8 23.4 25.9 -1.2 34.8 38.7 23.3 24.8 26.2 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 55 45 0 100 22.8 23.4 24.3 -1.1 35.8 40.0 23.2 24.6 26.0 30 Valjevo 28500G11 66 34 0 100 23.1 23.6 24.1 -1.5 30.6 36.3 23.8 25.2 26.5 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 64 36 0 100 23.6 23.8 23.4 -1.6 29.1 36.1 24.1 25.3 26.5 30 Vranje 18300G04 65 35 0 100 22.9 23.4 24.7 -1.4 31.7 37.0 23.5 25.0 26.3 30 Vrsac 39200G15 55 45 0 100 24.2 24.9 24.5 -0.8 39.1 43.3 24.5 25.7 26.8 30 Zajecar 36700G16 58 42 0 100 17.6 18.2 21.6 -1.1 35.5 40.3 18.0 19.4 20.7 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 64 36 0 100 22.6 23.1 25.5 -1.5 30.6 35.5 23.3 24.8 26.3 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.6-0.7 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------