***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** mxt1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama mxt2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anmx2t: prognozirana anomalija, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctmxt: prognoziran percentil u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala apcmxt: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 20.08.2020. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 14.09.2020.-20.09.2020. ************************************************************** ghid t<33 33<=t<=66 t>66 mxt1 mxt2 eavg anmx2t pctmxt avpmxt 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 62 38 0 100 20.8 22.1 23.7 -0.9 38.9 42.1 21.5 23.1 24.7 25 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 61 39 0 100 21.1 22.3 23.7 -0.9 38.6 42.1 21.7 23.4 24.9 30 Becej 27400G00 62 38 0 100 21.3 22.4 23.9 -1.0 37.6 41.2 21.9 23.5 25.1 30 Beograd 28900G14 61 39 0 100 14.5 16.2 21.9 -0.5 43.7 45.0 15.1 16.8 18.4 30 Crni Vrh 38400G13 62 38 0 100 21.9 22.9 22.0 -1.1 36.3 40.4 22.5 24.2 25.8 30 Cuprija 39700G22 60 40 0 100 21.3 22.6 20.1 -0.8 40.0 42.8 21.9 23.5 25.0 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 57 43 0 100 21.0 22.2 23.8 -0.7 41.1 43.8 21.4 23.0 24.6 30 Kikinda 37800G18 63 37 0 100 11.2 12.0 20.6 -1.2 35.3 39.9 11.8 13.3 14.6 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 64 36 0 100 21.4 22.6 22.3 -1.1 36.5 40.6 22.2 23.9 25.4 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 63 37 0 100 21.2 22.4 21.2 -1.0 37.5 41.4 22.0 23.7 25.3 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 61 39 0 100 21.9 22.7 21.9 -1.3 34.7 39.4 22.5 24.1 25.6 30 Krusevac 38200G21 63 37 0 100 21.2 21.9 21.7 -1.5 33.4 38.6 21.9 23.5 25.1 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 61 39 0 100 22.3 23.0 20.9 -1.4 33.7 38.8 23.0 24.6 26.2 30 Leskovac 26200G08 62 38 0 100 21.1 22.4 22.1 -1.0 38.6 42.5 21.8 23.5 25.2 30 Loznica 29500G14 58 42 0 100 22.3 24.1 23.1 -0.2 47.6 47.1 22.8 24.3 25.7 30 Negotin 38800G20 62 38 0 100 22.7 23.7 21.7 -1.1 36.8 40.8 23.4 25.0 26.6 30 Nis 06700G01 54 46 0 100 20.5 21.6 23.5 -0.8 40.3 43.6 20.8 22.5 24.0 30 Palic 37000G16 62 38 0 100 20.5 21.7 20.7 -1.0 38.4 42.2 21.2 22.8 24.3 30 Pozega 16800G06 63 37 0 100 20.8 22.0 23.8 -1.0 38.1 41.7 21.5 23.2 24.7 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 59 41 0 100 17.2 18.0 18.4 -1.1 36.7 41.2 17.7 19.2 20.6 30 Sjenica 27900G10 62 38 0 100 21.7 22.7 23.1 -1.0 37.4 41.1 22.3 23.9 25.3 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 56 44 0 100 20.9 22.3 23.6 -0.7 41.8 44.9 21.4 23.2 24.8 30 Sombor 26600G07 63 37 0 100 20.9 22.2 24.0 -1.0 38.2 41.9 21.6 23.3 24.9 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 65 35 0 100 21.0 22.3 22.2 -1.0 38.3 42.0 21.8 23.4 25.0 30 Valjevo 28500G11 58 42 0 100 21.4 22.6 22.1 -0.8 39.7 42.7 21.9 23.5 25.0 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 62 38 0 100 22.2 23.2 21.5 -1.2 36.3 40.3 22.9 24.5 26.0 30 Vranje 18300G04 57 43 0 100 21.3 22.5 22.9 -0.7 40.8 43.5 21.8 23.4 24.9 30 Vrsac 39200G15 61 39 0 100 22.2 24.0 22.4 -0.3 46.1 46.3 22.8 24.4 25.9 30 Zajecar 36700G16 60 40 0 100 16.2 17.2 19.7 -1.1 36.8 41.4 16.8 18.5 20.0 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 60 40 0 100 20.9 22.1 23.7 -0.9 38.7 42.0 21.5 23.2 24.7 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.6-0.7 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------