***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** mxt1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama mxt2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anmx2t: prognozirana anomalija, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctmxt: prognoziran percentil u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala apcmxt: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 20.08.2020. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 24.08.2020.-20.09.2020. ************************************************************** ghid t<33 33<=t<=66 t>66 mxt1 mxt2 eavg anmx2t pctmxt avpmxt 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 68 32 0 100 23.6 23.6 24.9 -1.4 24.7 30.1 24.1 25.0 25.8 25 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 67 33 0 100 23.7 23.5 24.8 -1.5 23.3 28.7 24.1 25.0 25.9 30 Becej 27400G00 67 33 0 100 23.8 23.7 25.1 -1.5 23.6 29.1 24.3 25.1 25.9 30 Beograd 28900G14 60 40 0 100 17.1 17.4 23.0 -0.9 33.1 36.9 17.4 18.3 19.1 29 Crni Vrh 38400G13 67 33 0 100 24.4 24.2 23.4 -1.6 21.7 27.5 24.9 25.7 26.5 30 Cuprija 39700G22 63 37 0 100 23.4 23.7 21.7 -0.9 31.5 35.9 23.8 24.7 25.6 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 62 38 0 100 23.5 23.4 24.9 -1.3 26.2 31.3 23.8 24.7 25.5 30 Kikinda 37800G18 67 33 0 100 13.1 12.9 21.9 -1.5 22.2 28.6 13.5 14.2 14.9 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 66 34 0 100 24.0 23.8 23.9 -1.6 22.9 28.5 24.4 25.3 26.1 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 65 35 0 100 23.8 23.8 22.5 -1.4 25.3 31.0 24.2 25.1 25.9 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 71 29 0 100 24.1 23.8 23.5 -1.8 19.0 25.5 24.7 25.5 26.3 30 Krusevac 38200G21 70 30 0 100 23.5 23.1 23.1 -1.8 18.8 25.7 24.0 24.8 25.7 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 74 26 0 100 24.4 24.0 22.8 -1.8 17.4 24.6 25.0 25.9 26.7 30 Leskovac 26200G08 56 44 0 100 23.9 23.8 23.6 -1.3 27.2 32.6 24.1 25.0 25.8 30 Loznica 29500G14 56 44 0 100 24.8 25.2 25.0 -0.7 36.8 39.7 25.0 25.9 26.6 30 Negotin 38800G20 69 31 0 100 25.0 24.8 23.3 -1.6 21.6 28.1 25.5 26.4 27.2 30 Nis 06700G01 64 36 0 100 23.0 22.9 24.6 -1.4 25.3 30.5 23.4 24.3 25.1 30 Palic 37000G16 61 39 0 100 23.1 23.1 21.8 -1.3 26.6 32.3 23.4 24.2 24.9 30 Pozega 16800G06 65 35 0 100 23.5 23.4 25.1 -1.5 24.0 29.3 23.9 24.8 25.7 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 60 40 0 100 19.3 19.1 19.8 -1.3 25.2 31.2 19.6 20.4 21.2 30 Sjenica 27900G10 68 32 0 100 24.0 24.0 24.6 -1.4 24.0 29.7 24.5 25.3 26.1 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 61 39 0 100 23.6 23.7 24.9 -1.1 29.3 34.2 23.9 24.8 25.7 30 Sombor 26600G07 61 39 0 100 23.7 23.7 25.3 -1.4 26.2 31.4 24.1 24.9 25.7 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 60 40 0 100 23.7 23.6 23.6 -1.3 26.3 32.0 24.0 24.8 25.5 30 Valjevo 28500G11 66 34 0 100 23.9 23.8 23.5 -1.4 24.7 30.1 24.3 25.2 26.1 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 62 38 0 100 24.5 24.2 22.9 -1.5 22.4 29.0 24.8 25.6 26.4 30 Vranje 18300G04 64 36 0 100 23.7 23.7 24.2 -1.3 26.4 31.4 24.1 25.0 25.8 30 Vrsac 39200G15 60 40 0 100 24.8 25.3 24.0 -0.7 36.7 39.8 25.1 25.9 26.7 30 Zajecar 36700G16 61 39 0 100 18.6 18.5 21.0 -1.4 24.1 30.2 18.9 19.7 20.4 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 66 34 0 100 23.5 23.4 24.9 -1.5 23.8 29.1 24.0 24.9 25.7 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.6-0.7 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------