***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** PAD1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama PAD2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anacp%: prognoziran procenat od normale, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctacp: prognoziran percentil: srednjak ansambla u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala avpacp: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 20.08.2020. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 24.08.2020.-30.08.2020. ************************************************************** ghid p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 pad1 pad2 eavg anacp% pctacp avpacp 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 0 20 80 100 18.3 27.7 22.3 206.8 85.6 77.4 4.2 8.2 14.0 25 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 0 25 75 100 18.9 31.5 19.1 210.8 86.1 77.5 3.7 7.9 14.3 30 Becej 27400G00 0 23 77 100 23.3 36.9 19.0 197.4 84.5 76.6 3.6 8.8 17.1 30 Beograd 28900G14 0 37 63 100 18.9 24.9 15.2 153.7 78.0 67.2 4.1 8.7 15.9 29 Crni Vrh 38400G13 0 31 69 100 20.1 28.1 14.4 171.5 81.0 69.1 4.1 9.0 16.3 30 Cuprija 39700G22 0 35 65 100 14.9 19.7 16.2 156.0 78.6 67.8 3.3 6.9 12.5 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 0 22 78 100 14.5 22.9 20.3 213.7 86.4 77.0 3.4 6.6 11.2 30 Kikinda 37800G18 0 27 73 100 32.7 43.8 18.5 170.8 81.1 73.4 7.6 15.2 26.2 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 0 25 75 100 24.5 36.1 17.7 196.9 84.7 74.6 6.3 11.9 19.6 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 0 26 74 100 25.6 35.1 19.4 175.8 81.8 74.6 6.2 12.0 20.4 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 0 31 69 100 17.4 24.1 14.2 173.8 81.5 68.4 4.4 8.6 14.4 30 Krusevac 38200G21 0 35 65 100 14.9 21.3 13.6 167.5 80.5 67.9 3.1 6.8 12.5 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 0 34 66 100 17.4 26.8 13.9 179.5 82.3 67.3 3.4 7.7 14.2 30 Leskovac 26200G08 0 18 82 100 32.9 50.6 23.6 204.6 85.9 78.7 7.1 14.0 24.5 30 Loznica 29500G14 0 81 19 100 5.2 9.0 10.3 118.4 71.4 57.2 1.5 3.6 7.1 30 Negotin 38800G20 0 36 64 100 17.1 24.9 13.6 167.0 80.3 66.8 3.3 7.5 14.2 30 Nis 06700G01 0 20 80 100 18.2 27.5 18.4 213.3 86.2 78.6 4.7 8.8 14.2 30 Palic 37000G16 0 27 73 100 18.9 26.9 22.1 182.9 83.0 76.4 4.7 9.1 15.4 30 Pozega 16800G06 0 24 76 100 17.7 27.2 19.6 207.4 85.8 77.5 4.4 8.5 13.9 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 0 29 71 100 25.2 31.7 20.3 166.1 80.6 74.5 8.9 14.5 21.7 30 Sjenica 27900G10 0 23 77 100 22.2 34.4 18.7 202.1 85.1 76.2 4.4 9.4 16.7 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 0 20 80 100 20.8 29.7 17.8 202.5 85.1 77.1 5.8 10.3 16.4 30 Sombor 26600G07 0 17 83 100 23.7 37.4 21.3 212.1 86.3 78.7 4.6 9.6 17.4 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 0 23 77 100 28.1 42.5 20.9 199.1 85.1 77.9 6.6 12.8 22.1 30 Valjevo 28500G11 0 21 79 100 23.7 33.6 18.8 186.5 83.1 74.4 4.7 9.9 18.0 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 0 79 21 100 9.0 18.3 10.1 156.9 78.5 62.3 3.1 6.6 11.7 30 Vranje 18300G04 0 19 81 100 22.2 32.8 21.4 197.5 84.5 76.9 4.3 9.0 16.4 30 Vrsac 39200G15 0 83 17 100 7.7 14.3 12.7 132.0 73.9 62.5 2.6 5.8 10.7 30 Zajecar 36700G16 0 21 79 100 32.7 48.7 23.2 197.3 85.1 78.1 7.6 14.8 25.3 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 0 23 77 100 13.4 21.0 20.0 206.6 85.6 76.6 2.9 5.9 10.3 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ padavine > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.7-0.8 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ padavine < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.7-0.8 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------