***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** PAD1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama PAD2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anacp%: prognoziran procenat od normale, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctacp: prognoziran percentil: srednjak ansambla u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala avpacp: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 20.08.2020. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 31.08.2020.-06.09.2020. ************************************************************** ghid p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 pad1 pad2 eavg anacp% pctacp avpacp 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 55 45 0 100 3.9 15.3 13.6 129.1 72.9 53.7 3.6 7.1 12.3 25 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 51 49 0 100 3.4 13.4 13.9 129.3 72.9 58.2 2.9 6.0 10.6 30 Becej 27400G00 53 47 0 100 4.6 16.2 14.3 124.2 71.4 55.3 4.1 8.1 13.6 30 Beograd 28900G14 55 45 0 100 5.7 19.7 13.4 113.2 68.9 49.7 5.3 10.5 17.9 30 Crni Vrh 38400G13 58 42 0 100 3.9 16.1 13.7 121.5 70.8 52.7 3.7 7.7 13.6 30 Cuprija 39700G22 0 75 25 100 12.0 12.2 11.4 90.0 60.5 48.4 3.5 8.0 15.2 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 0 34 66 100 13.2 14.1 13.9 131.6 73.5 57.6 3.7 6.9 11.3 30 Kikinda 37800G18 57 43 0 100 8.2 22.9 12.1 92.8 62.0 47.7 8.1 15.4 25.8 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 60 40 0 100 4.1 14.6 13.7 118.2 70.0 50.6 4.2 7.9 13.0 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 55 45 0 100 5.2 17.3 14.5 108.9 67.3 50.3 4.7 9.6 16.6 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 58 42 0 100 3.9 13.2 11.9 102.0 65.2 50.1 3.7 7.6 13.5 30 Krusevac 38200G21 58 42 0 100 3.9 12.9 9.9 91.0 61.6 48.1 3.4 8.0 15.4 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 54 46 0 100 4.9 13.7 10.2 95.7 63.6 48.1 4.5 8.7 14.7 30 Leskovac 26200G08 53 47 0 100 4.2 13.3 15.5 105.6 66.0 52.8 3.6 7.6 13.3 30 Loznica 29500G14 51 49 0 100 2.6 10.9 12.2 112.4 69.3 49.1 2.1 4.9 9.6 30 Negotin 38800G20 53 47 0 100 4.7 13.5 10.4 95.0 63.5 47.4 4.2 8.5 14.7 30 Nis 06700G01 51 49 0 100 4.4 18.0 15.9 144.4 76.4 59.0 3.8 7.4 12.8 30 Palic 37000G16 56 44 0 100 4.8 16.7 15.9 106.4 66.1 50.5 4.4 9.3 16.6 30 Pozega 16800G06 54 46 0 100 4.2 15.2 13.3 120.2 70.1 55.9 3.8 7.6 13.2 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 0 75 25 100 13.9 14.9 15.4 96.8 61.8 48.3 4.3 9.5 17.4 30 Sjenica 27900G10 54 46 0 100 4.4 14.7 13.6 121.5 70.8 52.6 4.1 7.6 12.7 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 51 49 0 100 5.1 18.7 16.1 140.4 75.3 58.0 4.6 8.5 14.0 30 Sombor 26600G07 54 46 0 100 3.7 10.4 11.7 100.2 63.9 49.7 3.3 6.6 11.2 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 56 44 0 100 4.0 15.9 15.2 111.7 67.9 51.6 3.5 7.9 14.8 30 Valjevo 28500G11 0 76 24 100 10.9 18.1 16.6 137.0 74.7 56.2 3.9 7.8 13.6 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 0 76 24 100 9.2 11.4 11.2 103.8 65.4 52.2 2.8 6.3 11.7 30 Vranje 18300G04 51 49 0 100 4.3 16.8 15.9 133.5 73.9 55.6 3.8 7.5 12.9 30 Vrsac 39200G15 52 48 0 100 4.2 12.2 11.5 102.7 66.4 47.1 3.7 7.2 12.0 30 Zajecar 36700G16 55 45 0 100 6.3 21.1 16.3 102.0 63.8 49.8 5.5 12.3 22.8 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 51 49 0 100 4.7 16.1 13.0 120.5 70.6 55.9 4.1 8.2 13.8 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ padavine > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.7-0.8 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ padavine < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.7-0.8 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------