***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** PAD1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama PAD2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anacp%: prognoziran procenat od normale, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctacp: prognoziran percentil: srednjak ansambla u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala avpacp: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 20.08.2020. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 07.09.2020.-13.09.2020. ************************************************************** ghid p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 pad1 pad2 eavg anacp% pctacp avpacp 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 64 36 0 100 2.5 12.4 10.1 116.0 70.1 43.6 2.5 5.6 10.6 25 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 62 38 0 100 3.0 12.0 9.9 110.0 68.9 47.2 3.0 6.2 10.7 30 Becej 27400G00 58 42 0 100 2.9 13.7 10.8 123.2 71.8 47.2 2.7 6.0 11.1 30 Beograd 28900G14 65 35 0 100 3.2 12.9 9.9 95.1 64.7 40.1 3.2 7.4 13.7 30 Crni Vrh 38400G13 66 34 0 100 2.3 10.8 10.4 108.7 68.0 44.8 2.5 5.5 10.1 30 Cuprija 39700G22 64 36 0 100 2.4 8.7 11.9 96.9 64.7 41.2 2.7 5.2 9.1 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 61 39 0 100 2.9 12.8 9.8 107.5 68.1 46.3 2.6 6.2 11.8 30 Kikinda 37800G18 59 41 0 100 4.6 15.5 11.0 95.9 63.4 45.2 4.4 9.4 17.1 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 66 34 0 100 2.1 9.6 10.7 110.3 68.2 45.1 2.3 4.9 8.8 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 60 40 0 100 3.3 10.5 12.0 103.2 65.8 46.4 3.3 6.4 10.6 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 63 37 0 100 2.3 9.9 9.8 104.6 66.7 44.8 2.4 5.2 9.7 30 Krusevac 38200G21 62 38 0 100 3.1 9.8 9.2 98.1 64.7 44.3 3.2 6.2 10.2 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 64 36 0 100 2.2 8.1 9.8 98.3 65.1 41.7 2.3 4.7 8.4 30 Leskovac 26200G08 53 47 0 100 4.1 17.0 14.2 111.9 68.8 50.0 3.3 7.8 15.2 30 Loznica 29500G14 73 27 0 100 1.3 6.8 9.0 92.0 64.6 35.8 1.5 3.7 7.1 30 Negotin 38800G20 64 36 0 100 2.3 9.5 9.7 99.2 65.4 41.4 2.3 5.1 9.8 30 Nis 06700G01 61 39 0 100 3.0 13.0 10.0 104.5 67.6 46.4 2.8 6.5 12.2 30 Palic 37000G16 52 48 0 100 3.6 11.5 13.9 105.5 66.3 49.6 3.0 6.4 11.4 30 Pozega 16800G06 61 39 0 100 3.4 15.3 10.4 117.2 70.6 48.1 3.4 7.2 12.9 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 53 47 0 100 5.5 16.2 13.8 99.3 64.0 49.5 4.9 9.8 17.3 30 Sjenica 27900G10 58 42 0 100 3.1 11.5 10.1 113.3 69.1 45.5 3.1 6.0 10.4 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 62 38 0 100 3.6 14.6 11.0 105.5 68.2 46.7 3.6 7.7 13.5 30 Sombor 26600G07 59 41 0 100 2.7 13.5 11.4 128.7 73.0 49.1 2.5 5.6 10.3 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 55 45 0 100 2.9 12.8 12.8 112.0 68.5 49.5 2.4 5.9 11.6 30 Valjevo 28500G11 60 40 0 100 2.9 12.4 10.6 110.9 68.8 45.6 2.7 6.1 11.1 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 66 34 0 100 2.0 7.2 8.5 94.5 64.7 40.8 2.2 4.4 7.5 30 Vranje 18300G04 63 37 0 100 3.1 12.7 10.8 113.1 69.5 45.3 3.2 6.5 11.3 30 Vrsac 39200G15 69 31 0 100 1.7 7.0 9.7 93.7 64.5 38.0 1.9 4.0 7.4 30 Zajecar 36700G16 52 48 0 100 6.7 19.6 14.3 102.0 64.9 49.5 5.9 11.9 20.4 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 63 37 0 100 3.0 13.2 10.4 117.0 70.6 46.5 3.1 6.4 11.3 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ padavine > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.7-0.8 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ padavine < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.7-0.8 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------