***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** PAD1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama PAD2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anacp%: prognoziran procenat od normale, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctacp: prognoziran percentil: srednjak ansambla u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala avpacp: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 20.08.2020. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 24.08.2020.-20.09.2020. ************************************************************** ghid p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 pad1 pad2 eavg anacp% pctacp avpacp 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 0 40 60 100 63.1 73.3 54.7 137.7 75.5 66.9 26.2 40.7 58.5 25 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 0 40 60 100 60.4 66.6 51.7 133.3 73.9 66.0 28.6 41.6 56.7 30 Becej 27400G00 0 43 57 100 67.5 78.7 53.3 134.1 74.6 64.9 27.4 43.4 63.7 30 Beograd 28900G14 0 80 20 100 56.0 71.2 49.4 115.5 67.4 56.4 29.5 46.9 69.0 29 Crni Vrh 38400G13 0 82 18 100 49.3 67.0 49.0 125.1 71.1 60.4 28.4 42.8 60.1 30 Cuprija 39700G22 0 79 21 100 44.8 52.6 50.9 109.1 64.4 55.7 23.0 37.1 54.4 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 0 41 59 100 57.6 64.7 52.7 135.8 74.6 66.5 28.0 40.2 54.5 30 Kikinda 37800G18 0 80 20 100 83.4 98.7 52.5 112.4 65.5 57.0 49.5 72.2 99.6 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 0 84 16 100 53.6 71.9 52.6 130.9 73.3 63.0 35.9 48.8 63.4 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 0 83 17 100 57.4 73.1 57.5 121.0 69.5 59.9 36.8 51.6 68.7 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 0 80 20 100 47.3 58.1 45.4 116.5 67.6 57.3 28.1 41.0 56.1 30 Krusevac 38200G21 0 78 22 100 48.2 54.9 41.1 108.6 63.9 54.9 27.0 40.7 57.3 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 0 79 21 100 45.6 57.0 44.1 114.4 66.9 57.5 23.1 37.6 55.8 30 Leskovac 26200G08 0 81 19 100 71.1 92.1 65.0 124.4 71.1 62.4 45.1 63.1 84.0 30 Loznica 29500G14 0 80 20 100 32.0 40.4 42.5 110.7 66.2 53.0 15.1 25.9 40.1 30 Negotin 38800G20 0 77 23 100 45.6 54.7 43.7 112.2 66.0 55.8 23.2 37.1 55.0 30 Nis 06700G01 0 41 59 100 62.0 69.9 52.6 135.7 74.6 66.6 29.7 43.2 58.8 30 Palic 37000G16 0 81 19 100 58.4 74.6 64.3 121.4 70.1 60.3 37.0 51.8 69.1 30 Pozega 16800G06 0 41 59 100 64.2 70.6 52.1 132.2 73.7 65.1 33.1 46.1 61.2 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 0 79 21 100 71.7 85.1 63.8 114.5 66.8 58.0 44.3 62.6 83.6 30 Sjenica 27900G10 0 43 57 100 67.9 77.1 51.9 133.5 74.1 64.3 30.6 46.1 64.6 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 0 39 61 100 69.2 75.3 54.0 132.8 73.8 64.4 34.9 49.0 65.3 30 Sombor 26600G07 0 44 56 100 62.2 69.6 53.6 131.7 73.8 64.1 31.6 44.7 60.1 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 0 80 20 100 65.7 87.6 59.9 127.0 72.3 61.9 40.7 57.6 77.6 30 Valjevo 28500G11 0 45 55 100 68.5 78.4 55.7 131.9 73.5 64.7 27.9 44.5 65.4 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 0 76 24 100 40.7 49.7 39.7 113.9 66.8 56.4 19.6 32.5 48.7 30 Vranje 18300G04 0 42 58 100 69.0 79.2 57.2 135.0 74.5 66.3 29.2 45.2 65.0 30 Vrsac 39200G15 0 79 21 100 39.1 45.8 45.2 109.5 65.4 53.4 23.0 33.6 46.3 30 Zajecar 36700G16 0 80 20 100 90.4 114.3 67.1 121.5 70.5 60.8 58.4 80.2 105.4 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 0 41 59 100 57.8 63.9 52.4 133.2 74.0 65.2 28.6 40.6 54.8 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ padavine > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.7-0.8 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ padavine < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.7-0.8 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------