***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** mnt1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama mnt2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anmn2t: prognozirana anomalija, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctmnt: prognoziran percentil u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala apcmnt: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 21.08.2014. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 25.08.2014.-31.08.2014. ************************************************************** ghid t<33 33<=t<=66 t>66 mnt1 mnt2 eavg anmn2t pctmnt avpmnt 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 85 15 0 100 12.6 12.1 15.2 -1.9 12.9 17.8 13.4 14.2 15.0 25 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 83 17 0 100 12.1 11.5 14.8 -1.9 13.7 18.4 13.0 14.0 14.9 30 Becej 27400G00 80 20 0 100 14.4 13.8 15.2 -1.7 14.6 19.4 15.2 16.2 17.1 30 Beograd 28900G14 69 31 0 100 9.9 9.3 13.4 -1.4 17.5 24.2 10.5 11.6 12.6 29 Crni Vrh 38400G13 73 27 0 100 11.4 10.7 13.6 -1.5 15.2 21.4 11.9 12.8 13.7 30 Cuprija 39700G22 53 47 0 100 11.0 11.7 12.9 -0.2 44.7 46.0 11.2 11.9 12.6 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 91 9 0 100 12.3 11.6 14.7 -2.2 10.7 14.9 13.3 14.2 15.1 30 Kikinda 37800G18 54 46 0 100 6.2 6.2 12.3 -0.8 29.6 33.3 6.4 7.3 8.2 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 75 25 0 100 12.6 12.1 14.2 -1.5 16.4 21.7 13.2 14.1 14.9 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 63 37 0 100 12.7 12.5 12.7 -1.1 22.2 27.3 13.1 13.9 14.6 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 71 29 0 100 12.2 11.8 13.3 -1.3 18.5 24.2 12.7 13.5 14.2 30 Krusevac 38200G21 58 42 0 100 10.9 10.9 13.0 -0.9 27.4 31.5 11.1 11.9 12.7 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 68 32 0 100 11.8 11.7 12.8 -1.0 21.8 28.0 12.2 13.0 13.7 30 Leskovac 26200G08 72 28 0 100 13.1 12.7 13.9 -1.4 17.4 23.3 13.6 14.5 15.3 30 Loznica 29500G14 80 20 0 100 13.7 13.0 14.6 -1.8 12.4 18.3 14.4 15.2 15.9 30 Negotin 38800G20 66 34 0 100 13.2 12.9 13.3 -1.1 21.1 27.4 13.6 14.4 15.2 30 Nis 06700G01 81 19 0 100 12.9 12.4 14.4 -1.8 14.3 18.8 13.7 14.5 15.4 30 Palic 37000G16 64 36 0 100 11.2 11.0 11.8 -1.1 21.7 27.5 11.6 12.3 13.1 30 Pozega 16800G06 80 20 0 100 12.6 12.1 14.9 -1.8 14.8 19.6 13.3 14.2 15.0 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 58 42 0 100 7.6 7.8 10.4 -0.6 32.1 35.9 7.8 8.5 9.2 30 Sjenica 27900G10 79 21 0 100 12.2 11.7 15.1 -1.6 14.7 19.8 12.9 13.7 14.5 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 84 16 0 100 12.1 11.6 14.6 -1.9 13.7 18.1 12.7 13.5 14.2 30 Sombor 26600G07 78 22 0 100 12.2 11.8 15.0 -1.7 15.5 20.5 12.8 13.6 14.3 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 68 32 0 100 12.8 12.3 13.7 -1.4 17.7 23.3 13.3 14.1 14.9 30 Valjevo 28500G11 83 17 0 100 12.3 11.6 14.0 -1.9 11.2 17.1 13.1 13.9 14.7 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 52 48 0 100 12.3 12.5 13.0 -0.5 36.7 40.2 12.4 13.1 13.8 30 Vranje 18300G04 89 11 0 100 11.8 10.9 14.4 -1.9 10.6 16.1 13.0 14.1 15.1 30 Vrsac 39200G15 67 33 0 100 11.5 11.0 14.1 -1.4 18.4 24.4 11.9 12.8 13.6 30 Zajecar 36700G16 63 37 0 100 10.1 9.8 11.3 -1.0 22.9 28.2 10.5 11.4 12.3 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 86 14 0 100 12.4 11.7 15.1 -2.0 12.4 16.9 13.4 14.4 15.3 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.6-0.7 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------