***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** mnt1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama mnt2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anmn2t: prognozirana anomalija, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctmnt: prognoziran percentil u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala apcmnt: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 21.08.2014. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 01.09.2014.-07.09.2014. ************************************************************** ghid t<33 33<=t<=66 t>66 mnt1 mnt2 eavg anmn2t pctmnt avpmnt 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 58 42 0 100 11.0 11.5 15.0 -0.7 37.8 40.0 11.3 12.2 13.1 25 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 64 36 0 100 10.7 11.2 14.7 -0.9 33.8 36.6 11.1 12.1 13.1 30 Becej 27400G00 59 41 0 100 13.1 13.6 14.8 -0.7 36.2 38.8 13.4 14.4 15.3 30 Beograd 28900G14 0 76 24 100 10.0 8.6 13.1 -0.7 35.7 39.2 8.4 9.5 10.6 30 Crni Vrh 38400G13 0 76 24 100 11.5 10.4 12.9 -0.6 37.3 40.6 10.1 11.1 12.1 30 Cuprija 39700G22 0 79 21 100 10.5 10.4 12.4 0.2 54.8 54.2 9.5 10.2 10.9 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 64 36 0 100 11.2 11.7 14.8 -0.9 33.9 36.8 11.6 12.5 13.2 30 Kikinda 37800G18 51 49 0 100 4.5 5.2 11.7 -0.3 43.5 44.9 4.6 5.6 6.4 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 54 46 0 100 11.2 11.6 13.2 -0.6 37.0 40.1 11.4 12.2 13.0 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 52 48 0 100 11.1 11.6 11.9 -0.5 40.1 42.4 11.2 12.1 12.8 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 0 77 23 100 12.1 11.4 12.8 -0.4 41.9 44.3 10.9 11.8 12.5 30 Krusevac 38200G21 0 75 25 100 10.5 9.8 12.5 -0.4 42.3 44.4 9.4 10.2 10.9 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 0 78 22 100 11.5 10.9 12.2 -0.3 44.1 46.1 10.4 11.2 12.0 30 Leskovac 26200G08 60 40 0 100 11.6 12.1 13.2 -0.6 37.3 39.5 11.9 12.7 13.6 30 Loznica 29500G14 0 76 24 100 13.5 12.6 13.8 -0.7 35.5 38.8 12.5 13.2 13.8 30 Negotin 38800G20 0 78 22 100 12.9 12.3 12.8 -0.3 43.5 45.6 11.7 12.6 13.4 30 Nis 06700G01 60 40 0 100 11.6 12.1 14.4 -0.7 36.1 38.4 11.9 12.8 13.6 30 Palic 37000G16 58 42 0 100 9.5 10.2 11.2 -0.5 39.5 41.7 9.8 10.8 11.7 30 Pozega 16800G06 62 38 0 100 11.1 11.5 14.7 -0.8 34.3 37.1 11.5 12.4 13.2 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 56 44 0 100 5.8 6.6 10.1 -0.3 43.5 44.4 6.1 6.9 7.7 30 Sjenica 27900G10 57 43 0 100 10.7 11.2 14.1 -0.7 36.9 39.7 11.0 11.9 12.7 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 60 40 0 100 10.8 11.1 14.3 -0.8 33.1 36.2 11.1 11.9 12.7 30 Sombor 26600G07 61 39 0 100 10.5 11.0 14.4 -0.8 34.8 37.6 10.9 11.8 12.7 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 57 43 0 100 11.2 11.7 13.0 -0.6 37.9 40.3 11.4 12.2 13.0 30 Valjevo 28500G11 0 75 25 100 12.7 11.6 13.5 -0.6 38.8 41.2 11.3 12.2 13.2 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 54 46 0 100 10.4 10.9 12.4 -0.5 40.5 43.0 10.6 11.3 12.0 30 Vranje 18300G04 55 45 0 100 10.8 11.6 14.2 -0.6 38.7 41.0 11.2 12.5 13.7 30 Vrsac 39200G15 0 77 23 100 11.3 10.4 13.5 -0.7 36.1 39.4 10.2 11.0 11.7 30 Zajecar 36700G16 58 42 0 100 8.2 9.0 10.7 -0.4 40.2 42.2 8.5 9.5 10.5 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 64 36 0 100 11.1 11.7 14.9 -0.9 34.0 36.9 11.6 12.6 13.6 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.6-0.7 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------