***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** mnt1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama mnt2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anmn2t: prognozirana anomalija, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctmnt: prognoziran percentil u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala apcmnt: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 21.08.2014. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 08.09.2014.-14.09.2014. ************************************************************** ghid t<33 33<=t<=66 t>66 mnt1 mnt2 eavg anmn2t pctmnt avpmnt 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 63 37 0 100 10.1 10.1 13.5 -1.2 26.6 32.5 10.5 11.5 12.5 25 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 56 44 0 100 10.0 9.8 13.4 -1.3 26.2 32.7 10.3 11.5 12.5 30 Becej 27400G00 57 43 0 100 12.4 12.4 13.4 -1.1 28.2 34.3 12.7 13.8 14.7 30 Beograd 28900G14 62 38 0 100 7.9 7.9 11.5 -1.1 26.9 33.1 8.4 9.6 10.7 30 Crni Vrh 38400G13 65 35 0 100 8.5 8.7 11.5 -1.0 29.0 35.0 9.0 10.2 11.4 30 Cuprija 39700G22 59 41 0 100 8.1 8.6 10.5 -0.6 35.4 40.2 8.4 9.5 10.4 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 57 43 0 100 10.5 10.2 13.4 -1.3 25.1 31.8 10.7 11.7 12.6 30 Kikinda 37800G18 63 37 0 100 3.6 4.0 10.2 -0.8 31.6 37.3 4.2 5.4 6.6 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 65 35 0 100 10.2 10.3 11.7 -1.0 28.0 33.9 10.6 11.6 12.6 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 64 36 0 100 9.8 10.0 10.4 -0.9 30.0 35.8 10.2 11.3 12.2 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 61 39 0 100 9.4 9.8 11.4 -0.8 32.5 37.8 9.8 10.8 11.8 30 Krusevac 38200G21 63 37 0 100 7.9 8.1 11.0 -0.9 30.3 36.3 8.3 9.3 10.2 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 65 35 0 100 8.6 8.8 10.5 -0.9 30.0 35.5 9.1 10.1 11.1 30 Leskovac 26200G08 57 43 0 100 10.7 10.9 11.9 -0.9 30.9 36.5 11.0 12.0 12.9 30 Loznica 29500G14 59 41 0 100 10.8 10.7 12.1 -1.2 25.7 31.5 11.2 12.1 13.0 30 Negotin 38800G20 63 37 0 100 10.1 10.4 11.1 -0.9 31.2 36.7 10.5 11.6 12.6 30 Nis 06700G01 57 43 0 100 10.9 10.9 13.1 -1.1 28.8 35.0 11.1 12.0 12.9 30 Palic 37000G16 62 38 0 100 8.5 8.7 9.8 -0.9 30.1 36.2 8.9 10.0 11.1 30 Pozega 16800G06 56 44 0 100 10.4 10.3 13.4 -1.1 27.9 34.1 10.7 11.6 12.5 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 62 38 0 100 4.6 5.1 8.8 -0.7 33.7 38.7 5.1 6.2 7.3 30 Sjenica 27900G10 62 38 0 100 9.6 9.6 12.7 -1.1 27.3 33.2 10.1 11.2 12.2 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 57 43 0 100 9.8 9.8 13.1 -1.1 28.3 34.6 10.1 11.1 12.0 30 Sombor 26600G07 54 46 0 100 9.8 9.8 13.3 -1.0 29.6 35.6 10.0 11.1 12.0 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 60 40 0 100 10.1 10.3 11.7 -0.9 30.3 36.3 10.4 11.5 12.4 30 Valjevo 28500G11 64 36 0 100 9.7 9.8 12.0 -1.1 27.0 32.9 10.2 11.4 12.4 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 60 40 0 100 9.1 9.2 10.8 -1.0 29.5 35.0 9.4 10.4 11.3 30 Vranje 18300G04 63 37 0 100 9.7 9.8 12.7 -1.2 26.9 32.7 10.3 11.7 13.0 30 Vrsac 39200G15 61 39 0 100 8.5 8.4 11.9 -1.2 26.4 32.4 8.8 9.9 10.9 30 Zajecar 36700G16 60 40 0 100 7.7 8.0 9.5 -0.8 31.8 37.4 8.1 9.3 10.4 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 57 43 0 100 10.5 10.3 13.6 -1.3 25.8 32.2 10.8 11.9 12.9 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.6-0.7 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------