***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** mnt1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama mnt2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anmn2t: prognozirana anomalija, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctmnt: prognoziran percentil u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala apcmnt: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 21.08.2014. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 15.09.2014.-21.09.2014. ************************************************************** ghid t<33 33<=t<=66 t>66 mnt1 mnt2 eavg anmn2t pctmnt avpmnt 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 62 38 0 100 10.0 10.7 12.8 -0.7 37.9 41.1 10.4 11.5 12.4 25 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 61 39 0 100 9.5 10.3 12.8 -0.6 38.9 41.4 9.9 11.0 12.0 30 Becej 27400G00 61 39 0 100 11.9 12.6 12.7 -0.6 38.7 41.4 12.3 13.3 14.3 30 Beograd 28900G14 52 48 0 100 7.5 8.1 10.6 -0.5 39.2 42.5 7.7 8.8 9.8 30 Crni Vrh 38400G13 54 46 0 100 8.9 9.8 10.6 -0.4 41.5 44.4 9.2 10.3 11.4 30 Cuprija 39700G22 51 49 0 100 8.3 9.3 9.4 -0.1 48.7 49.2 8.4 9.4 10.3 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 64 36 0 100 10.0 10.8 12.8 -0.6 38.9 41.6 10.4 11.4 12.3 30 Kikinda 37800G18 55 45 0 100 3.8 4.7 9.2 -0.3 43.7 45.5 4.0 5.1 6.2 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 57 43 0 100 10.1 10.8 10.9 -0.5 40.2 43.2 10.4 11.3 12.2 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 55 45 0 100 9.8 10.6 9.5 -0.4 42.2 44.6 10.1 11.0 12.0 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 52 48 0 100 9.7 10.4 10.4 -0.2 44.8 46.9 9.8 10.7 11.5 30 Krusevac 38200G21 54 46 0 100 8.3 9.0 10.1 -0.3 43.8 45.6 8.5 9.4 10.2 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 0 76 24 100 10.4 9.8 9.7 -0.2 46.2 47.7 9.0 10.0 10.9 30 Leskovac 26200G08 51 49 0 100 10.5 11.1 11.0 -0.4 41.3 43.3 10.7 11.6 12.4 30 Loznica 29500G14 52 48 0 100 10.8 11.1 11.2 -0.7 36.8 40.3 10.9 11.8 12.7 30 Negotin 38800G20 51 49 0 100 10.2 11.1 10.1 -0.3 44.6 46.6 10.4 11.4 12.3 30 Nis 06700G01 59 41 0 100 10.3 11.1 12.5 -0.4 42.5 43.9 10.6 11.5 12.4 30 Palic 37000G16 0 76 24 100 10.3 9.4 8.9 -0.4 41.9 43.9 8.9 9.8 10.8 30 Pozega 16800G06 61 39 0 100 9.9 10.7 12.7 -0.6 39.2 41.5 10.3 11.3 12.2 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 52 48 0 100 5.0 5.8 7.9 -0.2 45.3 46.2 5.1 6.0 6.9 30 Sjenica 27900G10 59 41 0 100 9.6 10.3 11.9 -0.6 38.5 41.7 9.9 10.9 11.9 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 59 41 0 100 9.3 10.0 12.5 -0.5 40.6 42.4 9.6 10.6 11.5 30 Sombor 26600G07 57 43 0 100 9.3 10.0 12.4 -0.6 39.3 41.6 9.6 10.7 11.8 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 52 48 0 100 9.9 10.5 10.8 -0.5 40.6 42.8 10.1 11.0 11.8 30 Valjevo 28500G11 59 41 0 100 10.0 10.8 11.2 -0.5 40.2 43.3 10.4 11.5 12.5 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 60 40 0 100 9.0 9.9 9.9 -0.3 43.7 45.9 9.3 10.2 11.0 30 Vranje 18300G04 62 38 0 100 9.6 10.7 12.0 -0.5 39.9 43.0 10.1 11.5 12.7 30 Vrsac 39200G15 51 49 0 100 8.8 9.2 10.9 -0.6 37.9 41.3 9.0 9.9 10.8 30 Zajecar 36700G16 0 76 24 100 9.4 8.4 8.5 -0.3 42.8 44.5 7.8 8.9 9.9 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 61 39 0 100 10.1 10.8 12.9 -0.7 38.0 40.8 10.5 11.5 12.5 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.6-0.7 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------