***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** mnt1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama mnt2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anmn2t: prognozirana anomalija, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctmnt: prognoziran percentil u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala apcmnt: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 21.08.2014. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 25.08.2014.-21.09.2014. ************************************************************** ghid t<33 33<=t<=66 t>66 mnt1 mnt2 eavg anmn2t pctmnt avpmnt 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 75 25 0 100 11.5 11.3 14.1 -1.1 17.1 23.4 11.9 12.4 12.8 25 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 76 24 0 100 11.1 10.9 13.9 -1.2 16.6 22.7 11.6 12.1 12.7 30 Becej 27400G00 73 27 0 100 13.5 13.3 14.0 -1.0 18.5 24.4 13.9 14.4 14.9 30 Beograd 28900G14 66 34 0 100 8.9 8.7 12.2 -0.9 19.7 25.6 9.2 9.9 10.5 29 Crni Vrh 38400G13 65 35 0 100 10.4 10.2 12.2 -0.9 20.8 26.7 10.6 11.1 11.6 30 Cuprija 39700G22 0 78 22 100 10.4 10.1 11.3 -0.2 43.4 46.1 9.8 10.2 10.7 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 79 21 0 100 11.6 11.3 13.9 -1.2 15.2 21.2 12.0 12.4 12.9 30 Kikinda 37800G18 62 38 0 100 5.2 5.3 10.9 -0.6 29.5 33.9 5.4 5.9 6.3 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 70 30 0 100 11.6 11.5 12.5 -0.9 20.1 25.9 11.9 12.3 12.7 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 68 32 0 100 11.4 11.4 11.1 -0.7 24.5 29.8 11.6 12.1 12.5 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 59 41 0 100 11.1 11.0 12.0 -0.7 26.1 31.2 11.2 11.7 12.1 30 Krusevac 38200G21 59 41 0 100 9.6 9.6 11.6 -0.6 28.1 32.8 9.7 10.2 10.6 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 54 46 0 100 10.5 10.4 11.3 -0.6 28.0 33.2 10.6 11.1 11.5 30 Leskovac 26200G08 74 26 0 100 11.9 11.9 12.5 -0.8 21.9 27.3 12.2 12.7 13.1 30 Loznica 29500G14 75 25 0 100 12.3 12.1 12.9 -1.1 17.6 22.5 12.6 13.1 13.5 30 Negotin 38800G20 52 48 0 100 12.0 11.9 11.8 -0.6 27.5 32.6 12.0 12.5 12.9 30 Nis 06700G01 71 29 0 100 12.0 11.8 13.6 -1.0 18.7 25.3 12.2 12.7 13.1 30 Palic 37000G16 69 31 0 100 9.9 9.8 10.4 -0.7 24.1 29.7 10.2 10.8 11.3 30 Pozega 16800G06 73 27 0 100 11.6 11.4 14.0 -1.1 17.9 23.8 11.9 12.4 12.8 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 59 41 0 100 6.3 6.4 9.3 -0.5 31.8 35.8 6.4 6.9 7.4 30 Sjenica 27900G10 71 29 0 100 11.2 11.0 13.4 -1.0 18.2 24.4 11.5 11.9 12.3 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 74 26 0 100 11.0 10.8 13.6 -1.1 17.2 23.4 11.3 11.8 12.2 30 Sombor 26600G07 74 26 0 100 10.9 10.8 13.8 -1.0 19.2 24.9 11.3 11.8 12.3 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 71 29 0 100 11.4 11.4 12.3 -0.8 21.7 27.4 11.7 12.2 12.6 30 Valjevo 28500G11 73 27 0 100 11.5 11.3 12.7 -1.0 17.5 24.1 11.8 12.3 12.7 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 51 49 0 100 10.8 10.7 11.5 -0.6 30.1 34.7 10.8 11.2 11.6 30 Vranje 18300G04 76 24 0 100 11.3 11.1 13.3 -1.1 17.2 23.7 11.8 12.4 13.0 30 Vrsac 39200G15 68 32 0 100 10.2 10.0 12.6 -1.0 20.4 25.5 10.4 10.9 11.4 30 Zajecar 36700G16 68 32 0 100 8.9 9.0 10.0 -0.6 25.7 30.8 9.2 9.8 10.3 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 78 22 0 100 11.7 11.4 14.1 -1.2 16.1 21.9 12.1 12.6 13.1 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.6-0.7 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------