***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** mxt1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama mxt2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anmx2t: prognozirana anomalija, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctmxt: prognoziran percentil u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala apcmxt: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 21.08.2014. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 25.08.2014.-31.08.2014. ************************************************************** ghid t<33 33<=t<=66 t>66 mxt1 mxt2 eavg anmx2t pctmxt avpmxt 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 53 47 0 100 25.1 25.1 25.7 -1.5 29.7 31.6 25.4 26.9 28.3 25 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 62 38 0 100 24.5 24.5 25.3 -1.9 26.2 28.0 25.1 26.6 28.0 30 Becej 27400G00 51 49 0 100 25.0 25.0 25.9 -1.4 31.1 32.8 25.2 26.7 28.0 30 Beograd 28900G14 54 46 0 100 18.6 18.7 24.1 -1.3 30.8 32.8 18.9 20.3 21.6 29 Crni Vrh 38400G13 0 78 22 100 28.1 26.4 25.1 -1.0 36.6 38.1 26.1 27.6 29.0 30 Cuprija 39700G22 0 84 16 100 26.9 27.0 24.2 0.4 56.2 55.3 25.3 26.6 27.8 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 64 36 0 100 24.2 24.1 25.1 -2.0 24.7 26.6 24.9 26.3 27.7 30 Kikinda 37800G18 0 80 20 100 16.4 15.5 23.9 -0.4 44.8 45.6 14.6 15.9 17.2 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 0 77 23 100 27.5 25.7 25.6 -1.1 35.6 37.2 25.4 26.9 28.2 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 0 78 22 100 27.4 26.1 24.3 -0.7 40.9 42.0 25.5 26.9 28.2 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 0 78 22 100 27.9 26.4 25.0 -0.7 39.8 41.0 25.8 27.3 28.7 30 Krusevac 38200G21 0 80 20 100 27.2 26.1 24.8 -0.5 43.4 44.3 25.2 26.7 28.0 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 0 84 16 100 28.1 27.6 25.2 -0.1 48.0 48.4 26.2 27.7 29.1 30 Leskovac 26200G08 0 75 25 100 27.2 25.2 24.8 -1.0 36.8 38.1 24.9 26.5 28.0 30 Loznica 29500G14 66 34 0 100 25.8 25.8 25.3 -1.7 25.6 27.8 26.4 27.7 29.0 30 Negotin 38800G20 0 81 19 100 28.8 27.7 25.2 -0.5 43.1 44.0 26.8 28.3 29.7 30 Nis 06700G01 65 35 0 100 23.7 23.6 24.7 -2.0 25.4 27.2 24.4 25.8 27.2 30 Palic 37000G16 0 78 22 100 26.4 25.4 23.6 -0.5 43.9 44.7 24.4 25.9 27.2 30 Pozega 16800G06 58 42 0 100 24.5 24.5 25.6 -1.7 28.5 30.1 24.9 26.4 27.7 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 0 82 18 100 22.5 22.6 22.7 0.4 56.0 55.5 20.7 22.1 23.4 30 Sjenica 27900G10 0 77 23 100 27.5 25.4 26.1 -1.2 33.4 35.2 25.4 26.9 28.3 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 63 37 0 100 24.2 24.2 24.9 -1.9 27.1 28.8 24.8 26.3 27.7 30 Sombor 26600G07 0 75 25 100 27.1 24.9 25.7 -1.4 32.3 33.8 25.0 26.4 27.8 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 0 77 23 100 26.9 25.2 24.8 -0.9 37.9 39.2 24.8 26.3 27.6 30 Valjevo 28500G11 52 48 0 100 25.3 25.4 24.8 -1.3 31.4 33.5 25.6 27.0 28.4 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 0 83 17 100 27.8 27.6 25.2 0.2 52.4 52.2 26.0 27.4 28.7 30 Vranje 18300G04 52 48 0 100 24.9 25.0 25.2 -1.4 30.6 32.6 25.2 26.6 27.9 30 Vrsac 39200G15 58 42 0 100 26.0 26.2 24.8 -1.4 30.4 32.3 26.4 27.8 29.1 30 Zajecar 36700G16 0 78 22 100 22.0 21.3 23.1 -0.2 48.0 48.3 20.0 21.5 22.8 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 60 40 0 100 24.6 24.5 25.5 -1.9 26.4 28.2 25.1 26.5 27.9 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.6-0.7 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------