***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** mxt1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama mxt2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anmx2t: prognozirana anomalija, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctmxt: prognoziran percentil u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala apcmxt: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 21.08.2014. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 01.09.2014.-07.09.2014. ************************************************************** ghid t<33 33<=t<=66 t>66 mxt1 mxt2 eavg anmx2t pctmxt avpmxt 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 65 35 0 100 22.4 22.4 24.3 -1.8 25.9 31.8 23.1 24.6 26.0 25 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 64 36 0 100 22.6 22.7 24.2 -1.8 26.9 32.3 23.3 24.9 26.4 30 Becej 27400G00 63 37 0 100 22.8 22.9 24.3 -1.8 26.8 32.5 23.4 24.9 26.2 30 Beograd 28900G14 62 38 0 100 15.8 15.7 23.2 -1.9 25.8 30.6 16.3 17.6 18.8 30 Crni Vrh 38400G13 62 38 0 100 23.4 23.6 23.2 -1.7 28.5 33.2 24.0 25.4 26.7 30 Cuprija 39700G22 0 75 25 100 24.8 23.5 22.5 -0.8 39.5 42.5 23.0 24.3 25.5 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 63 37 0 100 22.3 22.4 24.1 -1.7 27.2 32.7 23.0 24.6 26.0 30 Kikinda 37800G18 54 46 0 100 12.1 12.6 22.3 -1.1 36.0 39.4 12.4 13.7 14.9 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 63 37 0 100 22.9 23.1 23.4 -1.7 28.6 33.5 23.5 25.0 26.4 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 58 42 0 100 22.9 23.2 22.4 -1.4 32.0 36.2 23.3 24.7 25.9 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 57 43 0 100 23.3 23.7 23.1 -1.3 32.7 36.8 23.7 25.1 26.5 30 Krusevac 38200G21 55 45 0 100 22.8 23.4 23.3 -1.1 35.7 39.3 23.1 24.5 25.8 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 54 46 0 100 24.0 24.5 23.0 -1.1 36.2 40.0 24.3 25.5 26.7 30 Leskovac 26200G08 64 36 0 100 22.6 23.0 22.9 -1.4 30.6 35.6 23.3 24.8 26.2 30 Loznica 29500G14 63 37 0 100 23.7 23.6 23.6 -2.0 24.9 29.4 24.2 25.5 26.6 30 Negotin 38800G20 56 44 0 100 24.3 24.7 23.2 -1.3 33.2 37.2 24.7 26.0 27.3 30 Nis 06700G01 63 37 0 100 22.1 22.3 23.9 -1.6 28.6 33.7 22.8 24.3 25.7 30 Palic 37000G16 56 44 0 100 22.1 22.5 21.7 -1.3 33.0 37.2 22.5 23.8 25.1 30 Pozega 16800G06 64 36 0 100 22.4 22.5 24.3 -1.7 27.5 33.0 23.1 24.6 26.1 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 0 76 24 100 20.6 19.1 20.4 -0.8 39.1 42.1 18.6 20.0 21.3 30 Sjenica 27900G10 66 34 0 100 22.9 23.0 23.9 -1.8 26.6 32.0 23.6 25.0 26.3 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 66 34 0 100 22.4 22.7 23.9 -1.6 28.4 33.6 23.2 24.7 26.2 30 Sombor 26600G07 64 36 0 100 22.5 22.7 24.2 -1.6 28.8 34.2 23.2 24.7 26.1 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 60 40 0 100 22.5 22.8 22.9 -1.5 30.3 35.2 23.0 24.5 25.9 30 Valjevo 28500G11 64 36 0 100 23.0 23.0 23.1 -1.7 27.1 32.3 23.6 25.0 26.3 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 52 48 0 100 23.8 24.3 23.3 -1.0 36.7 40.5 24.0 25.2 26.4 30 Vranje 18300G04 63 37 0 100 22.7 22.8 23.6 -1.7 27.4 33.0 23.3 24.8 26.2 30 Vrsac 39200G15 62 38 0 100 23.8 23.7 23.5 -1.9 25.8 30.3 24.3 25.5 26.6 30 Zajecar 36700G16 55 45 0 100 17.5 18.1 21.0 -1.0 35.7 39.4 17.9 19.3 20.7 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 64 36 0 100 22.4 22.4 24.3 -1.8 26.3 32.0 23.1 24.7 26.2 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.6-0.7 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------