***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** mxt1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama mxt2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anmx2t: prognozirana anomalija, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctmxt: prognoziran percentil u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala apcmxt: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 21.08.2014. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 08.09.2014.-14.09.2014. ************************************************************** ghid t<33 33<=t<=66 t>66 mxt1 mxt2 eavg anmx2t pctmxt avpmxt 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 69 31 0 100 22.3 22.5 23.4 -1.8 25.9 31.1 23.2 24.8 26.2 25 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 65 35 0 100 22.7 22.8 23.3 -1.8 26.7 31.6 23.4 24.8 26.1 30 Becej 27400G00 66 34 0 100 22.6 22.7 23.5 -1.7 27.0 32.0 23.3 24.8 26.2 30 Beograd 28900G14 64 36 0 100 15.3 15.2 21.9 -1.9 25.3 30.3 16.1 17.7 19.3 30 Crni Vrh 38400G13 66 34 0 100 22.9 23.1 22.0 -1.7 27.5 32.6 23.6 25.2 26.7 30 Cuprija 39700G22 57 43 0 100 22.0 22.8 20.9 -1.0 36.4 39.9 22.5 24.1 25.5 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 67 33 0 100 22.3 22.4 23.2 -1.8 27.0 31.8 23.0 24.4 25.8 30 Kikinda 37800G18 61 39 0 100 11.5 12.0 20.9 -1.3 32.5 36.8 12.1 13.6 14.9 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 65 35 0 100 22.6 22.8 22.3 -1.7 27.7 32.9 23.4 24.9 26.3 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 64 36 0 100 22.3 22.7 21.2 -1.5 29.9 34.7 23.0 24.5 25.9 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 65 35 0 100 22.7 23.2 21.9 -1.4 30.7 35.4 23.4 24.9 26.3 30 Krusevac 38200G21 63 37 0 100 21.9 22.5 21.9 -1.3 32.5 37.0 22.6 24.1 25.6 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 62 38 0 100 22.9 23.6 21.6 -1.3 33.2 37.5 23.5 25.1 26.5 30 Leskovac 26200G08 66 34 0 100 22.7 23.1 22.0 -1.5 29.8 34.5 23.4 24.7 26.0 30 Loznica 29500G14 63 37 0 100 23.4 23.2 22.3 -1.9 24.7 29.2 24.0 25.4 26.7 30 Negotin 38800G20 64 36 0 100 23.4 23.9 21.8 -1.4 31.2 35.8 24.1 25.7 27.2 30 Nis 06700G01 64 36 0 100 21.9 22.0 23.0 -1.7 27.5 32.4 22.5 23.9 25.2 30 Palic 37000G16 63 37 0 100 21.6 22.0 20.6 -1.5 31.0 35.5 22.2 23.7 25.0 30 Pozega 16800G06 64 36 0 100 22.5 22.6 23.5 -1.8 27.3 32.1 23.2 24.5 25.8 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 64 36 0 100 17.6 18.4 18.9 -1.2 34.6 38.2 18.2 19.7 21.2 30 Sjenica 27900G10 69 31 0 100 22.7 22.9 22.9 -1.8 26.3 31.7 23.6 25.0 26.4 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 63 37 0 100 22.6 22.6 23.0 -1.8 27.4 32.5 23.1 24.5 25.8 30 Sombor 26600G07 63 37 0 100 22.7 22.9 23.4 -1.7 28.4 33.2 23.3 24.6 25.9 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 63 37 0 100 22.4 22.7 22.0 -1.6 29.6 34.3 23.0 24.4 25.7 30 Valjevo 28500G11 69 31 0 100 22.5 22.6 22.0 -1.8 26.1 31.4 23.3 24.8 26.2 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 62 38 0 100 22.8 23.4 21.7 -1.2 33.2 37.3 23.4 24.9 26.3 30 Vranje 18300G04 68 32 0 100 22.5 22.7 22.6 -1.7 26.7 31.9 23.3 24.7 26.0 30 Vrsac 39200G15 64 36 0 100 23.3 23.3 22.1 -1.9 25.4 30.2 24.0 25.5 26.8 30 Zajecar 36700G16 62 38 0 100 17.1 17.6 19.7 -1.4 32.4 36.5 17.6 19.0 20.4 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 66 34 0 100 22.5 22.6 23.5 -1.8 26.4 31.3 23.2 24.6 26.0 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.6-0.7 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------