***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** mxt1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama mxt2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anmx2t: prognozirana anomalija, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctmxt: prognoziran percentil u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala apcmxt: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 21.08.2014. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 15.09.2014.-21.09.2014. ************************************************************** ghid t<33 33<=t<=66 t>66 mxt1 mxt2 eavg anmx2t pctmxt avpmxt 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 60 40 0 100 20.6 21.8 22.6 -0.9 38.6 41.1 21.2 22.8 24.3 25 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 51 49 0 100 21.3 22.2 22.7 -0.8 39.4 41.5 21.5 23.2 24.7 30 Becej 27400G00 57 43 0 100 21.3 22.4 22.7 -0.8 39.7 41.9 21.7 23.3 24.8 30 Beograd 28900G14 56 44 0 100 14.5 15.4 21.1 -1.0 37.3 40.3 14.9 16.6 18.1 30 Crni Vrh 38400G13 56 44 0 100 21.9 23.1 21.3 -0.8 40.2 42.5 22.4 24.0 25.5 30 Cuprija 39700G22 52 48 0 100 21.5 23.1 20.0 -0.2 46.8 47.5 21.8 23.3 24.8 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 54 46 0 100 20.9 21.9 22.6 -0.8 39.4 41.5 21.2 22.9 24.4 30 Kikinda 37800G18 51 49 0 100 11.4 12.6 20.2 -0.4 44.7 45.9 11.6 13.1 14.4 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 56 44 0 100 21.5 22.7 21.6 -0.8 40.7 42.8 21.9 23.6 25.2 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 52 48 0 100 21.4 22.7 20.6 -0.6 43.1 44.6 21.7 23.4 25.0 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 53 47 0 100 22.0 23.3 21.2 -0.6 43.0 44.7 22.3 23.9 25.3 30 Krusevac 38200G21 54 46 0 100 21.3 22.7 21.1 -0.5 44.0 45.4 21.6 23.3 24.8 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 57 43 0 100 22.3 23.9 20.7 -0.5 44.2 45.5 22.8 24.4 25.9 30 Leskovac 26200G08 0 76 24 100 24.1 22.8 21.6 -0.4 44.6 45.3 21.6 23.4 25.0 30 Loznica 29500G14 56 44 0 100 22.2 22.8 21.4 -1.1 35.0 38.6 22.6 24.0 25.3 30 Negotin 38800G20 57 43 0 100 22.8 24.1 21.0 -0.6 42.6 44.4 23.2 24.8 26.3 30 Nis 06700G01 0 75 25 100 23.0 21.4 22.4 -0.7 40.5 42.1 20.7 22.3 23.8 30 Palic 37000G16 0 76 24 100 23.2 22.1 20.1 -0.5 44.8 45.7 20.9 22.6 24.1 30 Pozega 16800G06 0 76 24 100 23.7 22.1 22.9 -0.8 40.4 42.2 21.4 23.0 24.5 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 0 76 24 100 19.6 18.7 18.4 -0.3 46.8 47.4 17.4 18.9 20.4 30 Sjenica 27900G10 62 38 0 100 21.4 22.6 22.2 -0.9 39.1 41.6 22.0 23.5 25.0 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 0 77 23 100 23.7 22.1 22.5 -0.7 40.7 42.2 21.3 23.0 24.7 30 Sombor 26600G07 0 77 23 100 23.9 22.4 22.8 -0.6 42.2 43.6 21.5 23.2 24.8 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 0 75 25 100 23.9 22.6 21.4 -0.6 43.4 44.6 21.6 23.2 24.8 30 Valjevo 28500G11 56 44 0 100 21.3 22.3 21.2 -0.9 38.8 41.4 21.7 23.3 24.7 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 55 45 0 100 22.2 23.7 20.8 -0.5 43.9 45.4 22.6 24.2 25.8 30 Vranje 18300G04 58 42 0 100 21.1 22.2 21.9 -0.8 39.3 41.8 21.6 23.1 24.6 30 Vrsac 39200G15 57 43 0 100 22.1 22.9 21.3 -1.0 36.7 39.9 22.6 24.1 25.6 30 Zajecar 36700G16 0 76 24 100 19.0 17.9 19.3 -0.3 46.2 46.8 16.5 18.2 19.8 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 54 46 0 100 21.0 22.0 22.8 -0.9 38.9 41.2 21.4 23.0 24.5 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.6-0.7 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------