***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** mxt1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama mxt2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anmx2t: prognozirana anomalija, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctmxt: prognoziran percentil u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala apcmxt: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 21.08.2014. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 25.08.2014.-21.09.2014. ************************************************************** ghid t<33 33<=t<=66 t>66 mxt1 mxt2 eavg anmx2t pctmxt avpmxt 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 75 25 0 100 23.2 23.1 24.0 -1.5 20.2 24.7 23.9 24.8 25.6 25 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 74 26 0 100 23.3 23.1 23.9 -1.6 20.3 24.7 23.9 24.9 25.7 30 Becej 27400G00 74 26 0 100 23.5 23.4 24.1 -1.4 21.6 26.0 24.1 24.9 25.7 30 Beograd 28900G14 70 30 0 100 16.7 16.4 22.5 -1.5 20.0 24.1 17.2 18.1 18.9 29 Crni Vrh 38400G13 65 35 0 100 24.3 24.1 22.9 -1.3 24.0 28.3 24.7 25.5 26.4 30 Cuprija 39700G22 0 78 22 100 24.9 24.1 21.9 -0.4 40.8 43.4 23.7 24.6 25.4 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 77 23 0 100 23.0 22.8 23.8 -1.6 20.0 24.5 23.6 24.5 25.4 30 Kikinda 37800G18 53 47 0 100 13.2 13.3 21.8 -0.8 33.0 36.3 13.3 14.1 14.8 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 68 32 0 100 23.8 23.7 23.2 -1.3 23.9 28.2 24.2 25.1 25.9 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 59 41 0 100 23.7 23.7 22.2 -1.0 28.5 32.4 24.0 24.9 25.7 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 55 45 0 100 24.3 24.2 22.8 -1.0 28.8 32.7 24.5 25.3 26.1 30 Krusevac 38200G21 53 47 0 100 23.6 23.7 22.8 -0.8 32.2 35.7 23.8 24.6 25.5 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 0 76 24 100 26.0 24.9 22.6 -0.7 34.3 37.6 24.8 25.7 26.5 30 Leskovac 26200G08 66 34 0 100 23.5 23.6 22.8 -1.1 26.7 30.9 23.9 24.8 25.7 30 Loznica 29500G14 79 21 0 100 24.2 23.9 23.2 -1.7 18.1 21.8 24.8 25.7 26.4 30 Negotin 38800G20 55 45 0 100 25.1 25.2 22.8 -0.9 30.1 33.9 25.3 26.2 27.0 30 Nis 06700G01 75 25 0 100 22.5 22.4 23.5 -1.5 21.2 25.8 23.2 24.1 24.9 30 Palic 37000G16 57 43 0 100 23.0 23.1 21.5 -0.9 30.7 34.4 23.2 24.0 24.7 30 Pozega 16800G06 73 27 0 100 23.1 23.0 24.1 -1.5 21.6 26.0 23.7 24.6 25.5 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 0 78 22 100 20.5 19.7 20.1 -0.5 39.9 42.1 19.4 20.2 21.0 30 Sjenica 27900G10 70 30 0 100 23.8 23.6 23.8 -1.4 21.5 25.9 24.3 25.1 25.9 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 77 23 0 100 23.0 23.0 23.6 -1.5 21.8 26.2 23.7 24.6 25.5 30 Sombor 26600G07 66 34 0 100 23.4 23.3 24.0 -1.3 23.9 28.3 23.9 24.7 25.6 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 66 34 0 100 23.4 23.4 22.8 -1.1 26.6 30.8 23.8 24.6 25.4 30 Valjevo 28500G11 71 29 0 100 23.6 23.4 22.8 -1.4 21.0 25.5 24.1 25.0 25.9 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 0 76 24 100 25.8 24.7 22.7 -0.6 35.8 38.8 24.6 25.4 26.2 30 Vranje 18300G04 72 28 0 100 23.4 23.2 23.3 -1.4 21.4 25.9 23.9 24.8 25.6 30 Vrsac 39200G15 72 28 0 100 24.4 24.1 22.9 -1.6 20.1 24.0 24.9 25.7 26.5 30 Zajecar 36700G16 55 45 0 100 18.6 18.8 20.8 -0.7 34.2 37.4 18.7 19.5 20.2 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 76 24 0 100 23.1 23.0 24.0 -1.6 20.0 24.3 23.8 24.7 25.6 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.6-0.7 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------