***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** PAD1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama PAD2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anacp%: prognoziran procenat od normale, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctacp: prognoziran percentil: srednjak ansambla u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala apcacp: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 21.08.2014. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 25.08.2014.-31.08.2014. ************************************************************** ghid p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 pad1 pad2 eavg anacp% pctacp avpacp 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 55 45 0 100 5.7 6.2 4.8 36.3 36.1 29.2 5.5 10.2 16.9 25 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 62 38 0 100 4.0 7.7 7.9 62.6 47.6 38.7 3.9 8.6 15.2 30 Becej 27400G00 59 41 0 100 5.2 6.9 5.5 44.0 39.8 32.3 4.8 10.7 19.6 30 Beograd 28900G14 57 43 0 100 5.3 7.3 5.1 45.3 41.6 32.6 4.9 10.2 17.9 29 Crni Vrh 38400G13 55 45 0 100 5.2 8.4 6.5 55.6 46.3 39.0 4.7 9.9 17.8 30 Cuprija 39700G22 68 32 0 100 3.6 4.8 4.6 35.0 36.6 29.5 4.1 8.3 14.4 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 55 45 0 100 3.7 7.8 9.1 74.2 54.0 43.0 3.5 6.8 11.5 30 Kikinda 37800G18 72 28 0 100 7.4 10.6 4.6 37.6 35.8 27.4 9.4 17.3 28.0 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 67 33 0 100 5.2 7.6 5.2 41.9 38.6 31.2 6.0 11.6 19.6 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 68 32 0 100 5.8 7.8 5.5 39.8 36.7 29.6 6.6 12.9 21.6 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 71 29 0 100 4.5 5.9 3.8 34.7 34.5 26.8 5.5 10.2 16.5 30 Krusevac 38200G21 73 27 0 100 3.2 4.1 3.2 32.3 33.3 25.4 4.0 8.0 13.9 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 63 37 0 100 3.5 4.0 3.9 33.7 35.4 30.5 3.5 7.9 14.9 30 Leskovac 26200G08 63 37 0 100 6.3 7.4 6.6 41.4 36.2 30.4 6.5 13.1 23.0 30 Loznica 29500G14 52 48 0 100 2.1 3.9 6.2 58.5 49.6 37.9 1.6 3.9 7.8 30 Negotin 38800G20 63 37 0 100 3.4 4.1 4.0 37.8 36.8 31.4 3.3 7.8 14.9 30 Nis 06700G01 57 43 0 100 4.7 10.6 10.1 83.1 57.9 44.1 4.6 8.4 13.4 30 Palic 37000G16 69 31 0 100 5.2 6.5 5.9 36.9 34.5 28.6 6.2 10.8 16.8 30 Pozega 16800G06 58 42 0 100 4.9 8.0 7.4 58.7 46.6 38.1 4.8 8.9 14.5 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 70 30 0 100 8.3 11.3 6.2 41.7 37.4 30.9 10.1 15.6 22.8 30 Sjenica 27900G10 66 34 0 100 4.6 5.9 4.5 36.9 35.9 29.1 5.1 10.5 18.2 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 0 76 24 100 12.6 12.7 10.7 87.8 59.5 47.9 5.1 9.4 15.4 30 Sombor 26600G07 58 42 0 100 5.9 9.3 6.8 54.0 45.1 37.2 5.8 11.0 18.3 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 67 33 0 100 6.3 8.2 5.9 39.9 36.4 29.8 7.3 13.8 23.0 30 Valjevo 28500G11 0 77 23 100 14.7 8.2 6.9 50.8 44.3 38.2 4.7 10.4 19.0 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 68 32 0 100 3.0 4.5 4.1 39.7 38.8 31.6 3.3 7.2 12.9 30 Vranje 18300G04 51 49 0 100 5.9 7.9 6.9 48.7 43.2 36.2 5.1 10.4 18.3 30 Vrsac 39200G15 58 42 0 100 3.1 4.8 5.2 49.4 43.8 34.3 2.8 6.1 11.0 30 Zajecar 36700G16 70 30 0 100 7.6 10.1 6.2 38.2 35.1 28.5 9.3 17.0 27.5 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 56 44 0 100 4.0 6.2 7.0 54.7 44.6 37.1 3.8 7.5 12.7 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ padavine > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.7-0.8 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ padavine < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.7-0.8 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------