***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** PAD1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama PAD2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anacp%: prognoziran procenat od normale, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctacp: prognoziran percentil: srednjak ansambla u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala apcacp: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 21.08.2014. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 01.09.2014.-07.09.2014. ************************************************************** ghid p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 pad1 pad2 eavg anacp% pctacp avpacp 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 65 35 0 100 2.4 12.0 10.8 130.7 73.4 46.5 2.6 5.3 9.3 25 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 62 38 0 100 2.0 10.5 12.1 123.9 71.7 50.7 2.0 4.4 8.4 30 Becej 27400G00 61 39 0 100 2.8 12.3 10.7 126.0 72.3 49.6 2.8 5.8 9.9 30 Beograd 28900G14 64 36 0 100 4.5 21.1 9.9 131.3 73.7 47.1 4.8 9.6 16.4 30 Crni Vrh 38400G13 56 44 0 100 3.2 14.2 10.2 125.9 72.2 50.6 2.9 6.3 11.4 30 Cuprija 39700G22 0 77 23 100 11.8 20.0 14.3 131.0 73.5 54.1 3.5 8.1 15.2 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 61 39 0 100 2.7 12.6 12.9 132.3 73.8 50.2 2.8 5.6 9.7 30 Kikinda 37800G18 58 42 0 100 7.5 22.7 9.4 93.8 63.4 45.0 7.4 14.5 24.8 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 58 42 0 100 3.9 13.4 10.6 120.5 71.0 49.4 3.9 7.1 11.6 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 55 45 0 100 4.3 14.4 11.2 107.1 67.1 49.1 3.9 8.0 13.9 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 56 44 0 100 4.1 12.9 7.7 105.3 67.0 45.6 3.9 7.5 12.4 30 Krusevac 38200G21 63 37 0 100 4.1 15.1 7.0 97.0 65.3 42.4 4.3 8.8 15.4 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 55 45 0 100 4.6 15.5 9.6 114.2 69.7 49.6 4.3 8.3 13.8 30 Leskovac 26200G08 58 42 0 100 3.8 14.9 13.3 114.4 69.0 49.0 3.6 7.5 13.3 30 Loznica 29500G14 57 43 0 100 2.3 12.6 10.1 133.3 74.2 50.2 2.0 4.7 9.1 30 Negotin 38800G20 54 46 0 100 4.1 15.7 9.3 119.9 71.0 50.6 3.6 7.5 13.2 30 Nis 06700G01 58 42 0 100 3.0 13.4 11.8 121.8 71.2 50.6 2.8 6.1 11.1 30 Palic 37000G16 53 47 0 100 4.6 16.8 14.6 114.7 68.9 53.3 4.0 8.5 15.1 30 Pozega 16800G06 59 41 0 100 3.1 14.8 11.8 125.0 72.1 51.1 2.9 6.4 11.9 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 54 46 0 100 5.3 16.9 15.7 105.5 65.6 51.6 4.7 9.7 17.2 30 Sjenica 27900G10 65 35 0 100 2.6 12.2 9.6 123.8 71.8 47.3 2.9 5.8 10.1 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 55 45 0 100 4.2 14.5 11.5 112.5 68.8 50.5 3.9 7.7 13.3 30 Sombor 26600G07 55 45 0 100 3.0 12.7 11.8 127.6 72.6 50.9 2.8 5.7 10.1 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 56 44 0 100 3.9 15.3 12.7 115.4 69.2 51.1 3.5 7.6 13.7 30 Valjevo 28500G11 57 43 0 100 3.3 16.9 13.4 145.2 76.5 53.1 2.9 6.3 11.5 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 63 37 0 100 3.1 13.9 8.4 128.3 73.0 47.1 3.2 6.4 11.0 30 Vranje 18300G04 58 42 0 100 2.8 14.3 13.9 143.9 76.2 50.6 2.6 5.5 10.0 30 Vrsac 39200G15 57 43 0 100 3.6 13.7 9.8 128.7 73.2 49.7 3.5 6.6 11.0 30 Zajecar 36700G16 54 46 0 100 7.3 25.0 16.2 115.9 69.0 52.7 6.5 13.1 22.7 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 61 39 0 100 2.7 13.8 12.1 128.8 72.9 50.1 2.6 5.9 10.7 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ padavine > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.7-0.8 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ padavine < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.7-0.8 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------