***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** PAD1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama PAD2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anacp%: prognoziran procenat od normale, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctacp: prognoziran percentil: srednjak ansambla u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala apcacp: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 21.08.2014. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 08.09.2014.-14.09.2014. ************************************************************** ghid p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 pad1 pad2 eavg anacp% pctacp avpacp 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 60 40 0 100 4.1 17.0 8.9 112.0 68.9 43.9 4.0 8.5 15.4 25 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 60 40 0 100 4.3 16.2 10.3 119.4 70.7 48.5 4.3 8.4 14.0 30 Becej 27400G00 61 39 0 100 3.8 15.8 9.9 115.9 69.6 45.2 3.9 7.9 13.9 30 Beograd 28900G14 66 34 0 100 3.1 15.2 9.8 103.8 66.8 42.7 3.2 7.6 14.7 30 Crni Vrh 38400G13 61 39 0 100 3.1 15.0 11.7 119.2 71.0 47.1 3.0 6.7 12.5 30 Cuprija 39700G22 0 76 24 100 8.1 11.1 14.1 108.5 68.4 51.9 2.8 5.8 10.2 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 63 37 0 100 3.6 16.9 10.1 116.8 70.3 48.6 3.6 8.0 14.5 30 Kikinda 37800G18 60 40 0 100 4.6 22.0 13.4 122.6 71.5 47.2 4.4 9.7 17.9 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 64 36 0 100 3.0 15.6 13.0 129.3 73.4 46.2 3.1 6.7 11.9 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 63 37 0 100 3.9 17.1 14.8 128.9 73.1 47.7 4.1 8.1 13.6 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 59 41 0 100 3.0 14.1 11.2 125.5 72.4 48.7 2.7 6.1 11.2 30 Krusevac 38200G21 58 42 0 100 3.0 12.5 9.9 116.4 69.9 45.9 2.7 6.0 10.9 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 59 41 0 100 2.7 11.5 10.9 110.4 68.4 48.6 2.6 5.7 10.6 30 Leskovac 26200G08 58 42 0 100 4.6 21.6 13.5 118.6 70.4 47.6 4.0 9.4 18.0 30 Loznica 29500G14 58 42 0 100 2.2 9.4 8.3 107.2 67.6 45.6 2.0 4.5 8.8 30 Negotin 38800G20 58 42 0 100 2.8 12.2 10.4 114.6 69.6 49.5 2.5 5.8 10.7 30 Nis 06700G01 61 39 0 100 3.9 18.8 10.6 124.5 72.3 49.0 3.8 8.2 14.9 30 Palic 37000G16 63 37 0 100 4.0 18.4 17.0 126.5 72.5 48.0 4.2 8.5 14.8 30 Pozega 16800G06 61 39 0 100 4.4 17.9 10.0 118.7 70.5 47.2 4.4 9.0 15.4 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 57 43 0 100 5.3 20.7 18.0 116.6 69.9 49.1 5.0 10.2 18.1 30 Sjenica 27900G10 69 31 0 100 3.7 16.8 10.5 116.7 70.3 43.9 4.3 8.6 14.6 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 59 41 0 100 4.8 18.0 10.0 109.4 68.3 47.2 4.7 9.5 16.6 30 Sombor 26600G07 63 37 0 100 3.9 15.3 10.0 115.5 69.6 45.2 4.1 8.0 13.7 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 65 35 0 100 3.6 18.7 13.9 123.5 71.5 46.2 3.8 8.4 15.4 30 Valjevo 28500G11 61 39 0 100 4.0 17.2 11.1 114.8 69.8 46.9 4.0 8.5 15.0 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 56 44 0 100 2.4 11.7 10.0 122.1 71.3 47.8 1.9 4.8 9.4 30 Vranje 18300G04 57 43 0 100 4.3 16.9 10.8 115.9 70.0 47.3 4.0 8.3 14.8 30 Vrsac 39200G15 61 39 0 100 2.3 9.5 9.4 107.0 67.5 45.8 2.2 4.9 8.9 30 Zajecar 36700G16 63 37 0 100 6.5 28.0 17.3 123.5 71.7 48.6 6.9 13.6 23.2 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 61 39 0 100 4.2 15.6 10.1 117.2 70.0 47.7 4.5 8.3 13.8 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ padavine > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.7-0.8 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ padavine < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.7-0.8 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------