***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** PAD1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama PAD2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anacp%: prognoziran procenat od normale, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctacp: prognoziran percentil: srednjak ansambla u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala apcacp: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 21.08.2014. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 15.09.2014.-21.09.2014. ************************************************************** ghid p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 pad1 pad2 eavg anacp% pctacp avpacp 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 66 34 0 100 3.5 13.1 6.4 106.5 66.0 38.1 3.9 7.7 13.1 25 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 65 35 0 100 3.5 11.6 7.0 99.5 64.2 39.6 3.8 7.3 12.3 30 Becej 27400G00 65 35 0 100 3.5 12.9 6.3 101.7 64.5 38.0 3.8 7.8 13.6 30 Beograd 28900G14 67 33 0 100 3.9 17.4 9.4 125.6 72.4 37.2 4.3 8.5 14.3 30 Crni Vrh 38400G13 69 31 0 100 2.9 14.1 9.2 121.7 71.6 38.4 3.4 6.8 11.8 30 Cuprija 39700G22 60 40 0 100 3.3 11.5 11.9 111.1 69.5 44.8 3.4 6.3 10.4 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 66 34 0 100 3.7 12.7 7.7 105.9 66.4 41.0 4.2 7.8 12.5 30 Kikinda 37800G18 55 45 0 100 6.4 21.0 9.6 109.6 68.4 45.4 6.0 11.6 19.5 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 60 40 0 100 3.9 15.8 8.9 114.3 70.0 39.3 3.8 7.9 13.8 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 56 44 0 100 4.9 15.0 10.1 111.7 69.1 43.9 4.9 8.6 13.6 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 63 37 0 100 3.2 13.5 8.6 120.1 71.3 40.2 3.3 6.6 11.3 30 Krusevac 38200G21 59 41 0 100 3.6 12.2 7.9 111.2 68.6 41.0 3.7 6.8 11.2 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 62 38 0 100 3.5 11.7 9.0 105.6 67.6 41.8 3.7 6.8 11.2 30 Leskovac 26200G08 58 42 0 100 5.1 17.8 9.1 104.0 66.2 43.3 4.7 10.0 17.6 30 Loznica 29500G14 72 28 0 100 2.1 12.9 8.9 124.3 72.4 37.9 2.5 5.6 10.2 30 Negotin 38800G20 66 34 0 100 2.8 11.1 8.9 115.3 69.9 39.5 3.2 6.0 9.9 30 Nis 06700G01 64 36 0 100 3.9 11.1 7.3 92.2 63.0 40.5 4.3 7.6 12.1 30 Palic 37000G16 54 46 0 100 5.0 17.7 11.3 111.5 68.9 46.5 4.5 9.3 16.1 30 Pozega 16800G06 63 37 0 100 3.5 11.5 6.6 96.9 63.4 39.7 3.7 7.4 12.6 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 52 48 0 100 6.1 19.8 12.6 109.7 68.2 49.7 5.5 10.7 18.4 30 Sjenica 27900G10 69 31 0 100 3.0 17.3 7.7 118.7 70.6 37.7 3.4 7.7 14.5 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 63 37 0 100 3.5 11.8 7.4 98.1 64.6 43.3 3.7 7.3 12.4 30 Sombor 26600G07 62 38 0 100 4.0 12.2 6.6 97.3 63.7 40.5 4.2 7.9 13.1 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 58 42 0 100 4.6 18.3 9.2 109.3 68.2 43.3 4.2 9.3 16.8 30 Valjevo 28500G11 63 37 0 100 3.8 15.1 8.9 117.3 69.9 40.9 4.1 7.9 13.3 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 58 42 0 100 3.8 11.1 7.5 101.0 66.5 41.6 3.8 6.9 10.9 30 Vranje 18300G04 62 38 0 100 3.9 15.2 7.8 105.9 66.5 40.9 3.9 8.3 15.0 30 Vrsac 39200G15 70 30 0 100 2.4 13.6 9.5 126.1 72.7 37.8 2.8 6.0 10.7 30 Zajecar 36700G16 54 46 0 100 8.2 26.6 12.1 110.9 68.7 47.6 7.5 14.5 24.4 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 65 35 0 100 3.1 11.0 6.5 97.6 63.4 39.1 3.4 6.8 11.9 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ padavine > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.7-0.8 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ padavine < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.7-0.8 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------