***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** mnt1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama mnt2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anmn2t: prognozirana anomalija, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctmnt: prognoziran percentil u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala apcmnt: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 22.08.2013. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 26.08.2013.-01.09.2013. ************************************************************** ghid t<33 33<=t<=66 t>66 mnt1 mnt2 eavg anmn2t pctmnt avpmnt 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 0 33 67 100 9999.0 15.5 17.8 1.2 71.0 68.8 9999.0 9999.0 9999.0 25 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 0 85 15 100 13.9 14.4 16.9 0.7 63.4 62.4 12.6 13.6 14.6 30 Becej 27400G00 0 30 70 100 17.1 17.2 17.7 1.2 72.9 70.3 14.8 15.8 16.8 30 Beograd 28900G14 0 35 65 100 12.5 12.7 15.7 1.1 72.8 69.4 10.1 11.2 12.2 29 Crni Vrh 38400G13 0 27 73 100 13.8 14.1 15.9 1.1 75.1 71.4 11.8 12.7 13.5 30 Cuprija 39700G22 0 14 86 100 13.0 13.5 14.0 1.3 82.6 77.4 11.0 11.8 12.6 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 0 45 55 100 14.8 14.7 17.2 0.8 64.5 63.4 13.0 13.9 14.8 30 Kikinda 37800G18 0 83 17 100 7.4 7.8 13.3 0.6 63.9 62.2 6.2 7.1 7.9 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 0 21 79 100 15.0 15.4 16.4 1.3 78.1 74.2 12.9 13.8 14.6 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 0 31 69 100 14.6 14.7 14.4 0.9 71.7 69.0 12.8 13.6 14.4 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 0 32 68 100 14.3 14.4 15.2 0.9 72.2 69.1 12.5 13.3 14.1 30 Krusevac 38200G21 0 39 61 100 12.6 12.6 14.3 0.8 69.2 66.5 11.0 11.7 12.5 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 0 17 83 100 14.1 14.8 14.7 1.4 85.2 79.7 12.2 12.9 13.7 30 Leskovac 26200G08 0 37 63 100 15.2 15.2 15.7 0.9 68.4 66.4 13.4 14.3 15.1 30 Loznica 29500G14 0 17 83 100 16.2 16.7 17.5 1.4 80.9 76.8 14.2 15.0 15.8 30 Negotin 38800G20 0 18 82 100 15.5 16.1 15.4 1.4 83.2 78.1 13.4 14.3 15.1 30 Nis 06700G01 0 85 15 100 14.5 14.8 16.3 0.5 60.6 59.8 13.3 14.2 15.0 30 Palic 37000G16 0 37 63 100 13.1 13.1 13.3 0.8 68.2 66.2 11.4 12.2 12.9 30 Pozega 16800G06 0 44 56 100 14.7 14.7 17.1 0.9 66.3 64.7 13.0 13.9 14.7 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 0 86 14 100 8.6 8.8 10.9 0.4 59.2 58.3 7.6 8.4 9.1 30 Sjenica 27900G10 0 29 71 100 14.6 14.7 17.4 1.2 73.9 70.7 12.6 13.5 14.3 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 0 87 13 100 13.4 13.7 16.4 0.5 59.2 58.5 12.4 13.2 14.0 30 Sombor 26600G07 0 35 65 100 14.3 14.4 17.2 1.1 71.3 69.0 12.5 13.3 14.1 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 0 34 66 100 14.8 14.9 15.5 1.0 71.1 68.7 13.0 13.9 14.7 30 Valjevo 28500G11 0 37 63 100 14.7 14.8 16.8 1.0 69.6 67.3 12.9 13.8 14.6 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 0 22 78 100 13.9 14.4 14.3 1.3 80.0 74.6 12.2 12.9 13.6 30 Vranje 18300G04 0 37 63 100 15.1 15.2 17.1 1.1 70.1 67.9 12.7 13.8 14.9 30 Vrsac 39200G15 0 23 77 100 14.0 14.4 16.5 1.3 78.6 74.4 11.8 12.7 13.6 30 Zajecar 36700G16 0 38 62 100 12.2 12.1 12.5 0.7 67.5 65.8 10.1 11.1 12.0 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 0 43 57 100 15.1 15.1 17.5 0.9 66.6 65.2 13.1 14.1 15.0 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.6-0.7 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------