***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** mnt1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama mnt2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anmn2t: prognozirana anomalija, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctmnt: prognoziran percentil u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala apcmnt: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 22.08.2013. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 02.09.2013.-08.09.2013. ************************************************************** ghid t<33 33<=t<=66 t>66 mnt1 mnt2 eavg anmn2t pctmnt avpmnt 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 0 76 24 100 9999.0 11.8 15.1 -0.4 42.8 44.6 9999.0 9999.0 9999.0 25 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 58 42 0 100 10.6 11.3 14.9 -0.6 38.5 41.1 10.9 12.0 13.0 30 Becej 27400G00 0 78 22 100 14.6 13.9 15.0 -0.3 44.4 46.0 13.2 14.2 15.2 30 Beograd 28900G14 53 47 0 100 8.0 9.0 13.3 -0.3 43.2 45.5 8.3 9.4 10.5 30 Crni Vrh 38400G13 53 47 0 100 9.6 10.5 13.1 -0.2 45.0 46.7 9.8 10.8 11.7 30 Cuprija 39700G22 0 77 23 100 10.2 9.9 11.8 0.1 51.9 51.0 9.1 9.9 10.6 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 55 45 0 100 11.1 11.7 14.9 -0.5 39.1 41.4 11.3 12.2 13.1 30 Kikinda 37800G18 0 75 25 100 5.8 5.0 11.3 -0.4 42.5 44.5 4.4 5.4 6.3 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 0 76 24 100 12.3 11.7 13.4 -0.2 45.7 47.1 11.1 11.9 12.8 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 0 76 24 100 12.1 11.4 11.8 -0.3 43.3 45.3 10.9 11.8 12.5 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 0 75 25 100 11.8 11.4 12.8 0.0 50.7 50.8 10.6 11.4 12.1 30 Krusevac 38200G21 0 76 24 100 10.1 9.7 12.3 0.0 49.2 49.4 9.0 9.8 10.5 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 0 79 21 100 11.0 10.9 12.0 0.2 53.7 52.4 9.9 10.7 11.4 30 Leskovac 26200G08 0 78 22 100 12.9 12.2 13.3 -0.3 43.3 45.4 11.6 12.5 13.4 30 Loznica 29500G14 0 78 22 100 13.0 12.7 14.3 -0.1 48.6 49.4 12.1 12.8 13.4 30 Negotin 38800G20 0 77 23 100 12.5 12.4 12.7 0.2 53.8 52.7 11.3 12.2 13.0 30 Nis 06700G01 59 41 0 100 11.4 11.9 14.4 -0.7 36.9 39.9 11.7 12.6 13.4 30 Palic 37000G16 0 78 22 100 10.9 10.0 11.1 -0.4 41.3 43.7 9.5 10.5 11.4 30 Pozega 16800G06 55 45 0 100 11.0 11.7 14.9 -0.5 40.1 42.4 11.3 12.2 13.0 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 54 46 0 100 5.5 5.9 9.4 -0.6 37.0 40.2 5.7 6.6 7.4 30 Sjenica 27900G10 0 77 23 100 12.0 11.3 14.4 -0.3 44.3 46.0 10.7 11.6 12.5 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 52 48 0 100 10.7 11.1 14.3 -0.7 37.0 40.1 10.9 11.7 12.5 30 Sombor 26600G07 0 76 24 100 12.0 11.2 14.8 -0.3 43.4 45.2 10.6 11.6 12.5 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 0 79 21 100 12.3 11.7 13.1 -0.2 44.7 46.3 11.1 12.0 12.7 30 Valjevo 28500G11 53 47 0 100 10.8 11.5 13.6 -0.4 41.6 44.1 11.0 12.0 12.9 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 53 47 0 100 10.0 10.8 12.0 -0.1 47.7 48.0 10.2 10.9 11.6 30 Vranje 18300G04 51 49 0 100 10.7 11.7 14.3 -0.4 42.0 44.2 10.9 12.4 13.7 30 Vrsac 39200G15 0 76 24 100 10.8 10.4 13.8 -0.1 48.2 48.9 9.8 10.5 11.2 30 Zajecar 36700G16 0 78 22 100 9.8 9.0 10.6 -0.4 41.5 44.0 8.4 9.4 10.4 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 52 48 0 100 11.1 11.8 15.1 -0.5 40.3 42.5 11.3 12.4 13.4 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.6-0.7 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------