***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** mnt1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama mnt2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anmn2t: prognozirana anomalija, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctmnt: prognoziran percentil u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala apcmnt: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 22.08.2013. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 09.09.2013.-15.09.2013. ************************************************************** ghid t<33 33<=t<=66 t>66 mnt1 mnt2 eavg anmn2t pctmnt avpmnt 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 0 76 24 100 9999.0 11.8 14.8 0.0 50.7 50.1 9999.0 9999.0 9999.0 25 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 52 48 0 100 10.2 11.5 14.6 0.0 49.5 49.2 10.4 11.5 12.5 30 Becej 27400G00 0 77 23 100 14.2 13.8 14.6 0.1 51.4 50.8 12.8 13.8 14.7 30 Beograd 28900G14 51 49 0 100 8.3 9.3 12.6 -0.2 45.6 46.5 8.4 9.6 10.7 30 Crni Vrh 38400G13 0 76 24 100 10.8 10.1 12.5 -0.2 46.8 47.7 9.2 10.3 11.4 30 Cuprija 39700G22 0 78 22 100 9.9 9.6 10.9 0.0 50.8 50.9 8.5 9.5 10.5 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 51 49 0 100 10.7 11.8 14.6 0.0 49.4 49.0 10.8 11.8 12.7 30 Kikinda 37800G18 0 78 22 100 5.9 5.1 10.7 -0.2 45.6 46.8 4.2 5.4 6.5 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 0 77 23 100 12.1 11.6 12.9 -0.1 48.7 49.1 10.7 11.7 12.6 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 0 77 23 100 11.7 11.1 11.3 -0.2 46.9 47.7 10.3 11.3 12.3 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 0 78 22 100 11.3 10.8 12.1 0.0 49.6 50.0 9.8 10.9 11.8 30 Krusevac 38200G21 0 79 21 100 9.8 9.4 11.6 0.0 49.4 50.0 8.4 9.4 10.4 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 0 81 19 100 10.5 10.3 11.2 0.1 52.3 52.3 9.1 10.1 11.1 30 Leskovac 26200G08 0 76 24 100 12.3 11.9 12.9 0.0 50.9 50.5 10.9 11.9 12.8 30 Loznica 29500G14 0 77 23 100 12.5 12.1 13.5 0.0 49.5 49.5 11.1 12.1 13.0 30 Negotin 38800G20 0 79 21 100 12.1 11.8 11.8 0.1 51.1 51.3 10.6 11.7 12.7 30 Nis 06700G01 54 46 0 100 10.9 11.9 14.0 -0.1 47.4 47.6 11.1 12.0 12.9 30 Palic 37000G16 0 78 22 100 10.4 9.8 10.7 -0.1 47.9 48.5 8.9 10.0 11.0 30 Pozega 16800G06 52 48 0 100 10.5 11.7 14.6 0.0 50.4 49.8 10.7 11.6 12.5 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 0 76 24 100 6.7 5.9 9.1 -0.3 45.0 46.4 5.1 6.2 7.3 30 Sjenica 27900G10 0 77 23 100 11.7 11.1 13.9 -0.1 48.9 49.0 10.1 11.2 12.3 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 56 44 0 100 9.8 10.9 14.0 -0.2 47.3 47.6 10.1 11.1 12.0 30 Sombor 26600G07 0 76 24 100 11.5 11.1 14.4 0.1 51.8 50.9 10.0 11.0 12.0 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 0 77 23 100 11.8 11.5 12.7 0.1 51.2 50.8 10.4 11.4 12.4 30 Valjevo 28500G11 52 48 0 100 10.2 11.4 13.3 -0.1 48.5 48.8 10.4 11.5 12.5 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 0 83 17 100 10.7 10.4 11.4 0.0 50.5 50.4 9.4 10.4 11.3 30 Vranje 18300G04 0 75 25 100 12.3 11.7 14.0 0.0 50.1 49.9 10.5 11.7 12.9 30 Vrsac 39200G15 0 77 23 100 10.4 9.9 13.0 -0.1 47.9 48.4 8.9 10.0 11.0 30 Zajecar 36700G16 0 78 22 100 9.7 9.2 10.2 -0.1 48.8 49.4 8.1 9.2 10.3 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 0 75 25 100 12.4 12.0 14.8 0.0 50.5 50.0 10.9 11.9 12.9 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.6-0.7 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------