***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** mnt1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama mnt2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anmn2t: prognozirana anomalija, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctmnt: prognoziran percentil u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala apcmnt: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 22.08.2013. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 16.09.2013.-22.09.2013. ************************************************************** ghid t<33 33<=t<=66 t>66 mnt1 mnt2 eavg anmn2t pctmnt avpmnt 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 55 45 0 100 9999.0 11.5 13.7 0.0 50.6 48.7 9999.0 9999.0 9999.0 25 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 56 44 0 100 9.6 10.7 13.4 -0.2 46.7 46.3 9.9 10.9 11.9 30 Becej 27400G00 55 45 0 100 12.0 13.3 13.5 0.1 51.6 49.2 12.2 13.2 14.1 30 Beograd 28900G14 59 41 0 100 7.3 8.3 11.5 -0.2 45.8 45.4 7.6 8.6 9.5 30 Crni Vrh 38400G13 59 41 0 100 8.8 10.2 11.4 -0.1 48.4 47.1 9.2 10.3 11.4 30 Cuprija 39700G22 0 76 24 100 9.7 9.4 9.8 0.0 50.5 50.0 8.4 9.3 10.2 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 56 44 0 100 10.1 11.0 13.3 -0.2 46.4 45.9 10.3 11.2 12.1 30 Kikinda 37800G18 57 43 0 100 3.9 5.1 9.8 -0.1 48.7 48.0 4.1 5.2 6.1 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 55 45 0 100 10.1 11.3 11.9 0.0 50.8 48.7 10.3 11.3 12.2 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 55 45 0 100 9.8 11.0 10.3 0.0 49.4 48.2 10.0 11.0 11.9 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 58 42 0 100 9.5 10.7 11.1 0.1 51.7 49.3 9.7 10.6 11.4 30 Krusevac 38200G21 59 41 0 100 8.2 9.4 10.7 0.0 50.8 48.9 8.5 9.4 10.2 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 55 45 0 100 8.8 10.0 10.1 0.0 50.6 48.8 9.0 10.0 10.9 30 Leskovac 26200G08 52 48 0 100 10.5 11.5 11.9 0.0 50.3 48.6 10.6 11.5 12.4 30 Loznica 29500G14 57 43 0 100 10.6 11.6 12.3 -0.1 48.2 47.1 10.8 11.7 12.5 30 Negotin 38800G20 57 43 0 100 10.1 11.4 10.7 0.1 51.2 49.1 10.4 11.4 12.3 30 Nis 06700G01 56 44 0 100 10.2 11.1 12.8 -0.3 44.5 44.9 10.4 11.4 12.2 30 Palic 37000G16 53 47 0 100 8.7 9.8 9.6 -0.1 48.3 47.4 8.9 9.9 10.8 30 Pozega 16800G06 56 44 0 100 10.0 11.1 13.4 -0.1 48.4 47.4 10.2 11.2 12.1 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 55 45 0 100 4.9 5.8 8.2 -0.2 45.6 46.1 5.1 6.0 6.9 30 Sjenica 27900G10 54 46 0 100 9.6 10.9 12.9 0.0 50.9 48.8 9.9 10.8 11.8 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 57 43 0 100 9.3 10.2 12.8 -0.3 45.2 45.5 9.5 10.5 11.4 30 Sombor 26600G07 53 47 0 100 9.4 10.8 13.3 0.0 50.6 48.8 9.6 10.7 11.7 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 52 48 0 100 9.9 11.0 11.6 0.1 51.2 49.0 10.0 10.9 11.7 30 Valjevo 28500G11 56 44 0 100 10.0 11.3 12.2 -0.1 49.0 47.7 10.3 11.4 12.4 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 57 43 0 100 9.1 10.1 10.3 -0.1 47.2 46.7 9.3 10.2 11.0 30 Vranje 18300G04 56 44 0 100 9.8 11.4 12.9 0.0 49.6 48.0 10.1 11.4 12.6 30 Vrsac 39200G15 57 43 0 100 8.7 9.8 11.8 -0.1 47.4 46.6 9.0 9.9 10.8 30 Zajecar 36700G16 56 44 0 100 7.5 8.7 9.1 -0.1 48.5 47.3 7.8 8.8 9.8 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 57 43 0 100 10.0 11.3 13.6 -0.1 48.3 47.3 10.3 11.4 12.4 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.6-0.7 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------