***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** mxt1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama mxt2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anmx2t: prognozirana anomalija, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctmxt: prognoziran percentil u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala apcmxt: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 22.08.2013. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 26.08.2013.-01.09.2013. ************************************************************** ghid t<33 33<=t<=66 t>66 mxt1 mxt2 eavg anmx2t pctmxt avpmxt 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 0 86 14 100 9999.0 27.1 27.0 0.6 58.4 56.6 9999.0 9999.0 9999.0 25 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 0 83 17 100 26.8 26.3 26.3 -0.1 49.0 48.8 24.8 26.3 27.8 30 Becej 27400G00 0 86 14 100 26.7 26.9 26.9 0.5 56.0 54.6 24.8 26.3 27.7 30 Beograd 28900G14 0 82 18 100 20.2 20.6 25.5 0.8 60.6 58.3 18.3 19.7 21.1 29 Crni Vrh 38400G13 0 83 17 100 27.6 28.1 26.0 0.8 60.6 58.4 25.7 27.2 28.6 30 Cuprija 39700G22 0 38 62 100 27.5 27.4 24.3 1.2 67.0 63.5 24.8 26.1 27.3 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 0 84 16 100 26.5 26.1 26.3 0.0 50.1 49.8 24.6 26.1 27.5 30 Kikinda 37800G18 0 82 18 100 15.9 15.9 23.7 0.4 54.7 53.4 14.2 15.5 16.7 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 0 85 15 100 26.9 27.4 26.6 0.8 60.4 58.2 25.0 26.5 27.9 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 0 84 16 100 26.9 27.0 24.7 0.6 57.0 55.3 25.0 26.5 27.8 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 0 83 17 100 27.3 27.9 25.8 0.9 61.1 58.8 25.3 26.9 28.3 30 Krusevac 38200G21 0 83 17 100 26.7 27.1 25.2 0.8 60.3 58.3 24.8 26.3 27.6 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 0 40 60 100 28.8 28.8 25.8 1.3 67.4 64.3 25.8 27.3 28.7 30 Leskovac 26200G08 0 78 22 100 26.8 25.9 24.7 -0.3 46.5 46.6 24.6 26.2 27.7 30 Loznica 29500G14 0 82 18 100 27.8 28.3 27.5 0.9 63.1 60.4 26.1 27.4 28.6 30 Negotin 38800G20 0 42 58 100 29.4 29.3 26.1 1.3 66.8 63.6 26.4 27.9 29.3 30 Nis 06700G01 0 81 19 100 26.1 25.2 25.5 -0.3 45.5 45.9 24.1 25.6 27.0 30 Palic 37000G16 0 81 19 100 26.0 25.5 23.1 0.0 49.6 49.1 24.1 25.5 26.8 30 Pozega 16800G06 0 83 17 100 26.6 26.2 26.4 0.0 50.1 49.7 24.6 26.2 27.6 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 0 77 23 100 22.2 21.2 20.9 -0.4 44.4 44.9 20.3 21.7 23.0 30 Sjenica 27900G10 0 86 14 100 26.9 27.1 27.0 0.5 56.6 54.9 25.0 26.5 28.0 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 0 80 20 100 26.6 25.5 25.4 -0.5 43.7 44.3 24.5 26.1 27.5 30 Sombor 26600G07 0 82 18 100 26.7 26.4 26.4 0.1 51.9 51.3 24.7 26.2 27.6 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 0 82 18 100 26.4 26.0 25.0 0.1 50.9 50.2 24.4 26.0 27.4 30 Valjevo 28500G11 0 84 16 100 27.0 27.2 25.9 0.5 57.0 55.2 25.1 26.6 28.0 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 0 44 56 100 28.4 28.2 25.3 1.1 64.7 62.2 25.7 27.0 28.3 30 Vranje 18300G04 0 85 15 100 26.6 26.7 26.2 0.5 56.5 54.8 24.7 26.2 27.6 30 Vrsac 39200G15 0 83 17 100 27.8 28.4 26.6 1.0 63.7 61.0 26.0 27.4 28.6 30 Zajecar 36700G16 0 78 22 100 21.5 20.7 22.0 -0.3 46.1 46.2 19.5 21.0 22.3 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 0 85 15 100 26.6 26.4 26.7 0.2 52.2 51.5 24.7 26.2 27.6 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.6-0.7 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------