***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** mxt1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama mxt2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anmx2t: prognozirana anomalija, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctmxt: prognoziran percentil u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala apcmxt: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 22.08.2013. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 02.09.2013.-08.09.2013. ************************************************************** ghid t<33 33<=t<=66 t>66 mxt1 mxt2 eavg anmx2t pctmxt avpmxt 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 0 78 22 100 9999.0 22.8 25.4 -0.2 47.3 48.7 9999.0 9999.0 9999.0 25 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 0 76 24 100 25.4 24.1 25.0 -0.5 43.2 45.2 23.1 24.7 26.3 30 Becej 27400G00 0 76 24 100 25.3 24.4 25.4 -0.2 46.6 47.9 23.2 24.7 26.1 30 Beograd 28900G14 0 79 21 100 18.0 16.8 23.8 -0.6 41.7 44.9 16.1 17.5 18.8 30 Crni Vrh 38400G13 0 78 22 100 25.8 24.7 23.8 -0.5 43.6 46.0 23.8 25.2 26.6 30 Cuprija 39700G22 0 76 24 100 24.8 23.9 21.9 -0.3 46.4 47.9 22.8 24.2 25.5 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 0 75 25 100 25.1 23.8 24.9 -0.5 43.3 45.3 22.8 24.4 25.9 30 Kikinda 37800G18 0 75 25 100 14.2 13.1 22.1 -0.5 43.8 45.9 12.2 13.6 14.9 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 0 77 23 100 25.5 24.5 24.1 -0.3 45.7 47.4 23.3 24.8 26.3 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 0 76 24 100 25.1 24.0 22.7 -0.4 44.3 46.3 23.1 24.5 25.8 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 0 77 23 100 25.6 24.6 23.5 -0.3 46.1 48.0 23.5 25.0 26.4 30 Krusevac 38200G21 0 75 25 100 25.0 24.0 23.3 -0.3 46.4 48.1 22.9 24.3 25.7 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 0 77 23 100 25.9 25.2 22.9 -0.2 47.1 48.6 24.1 25.4 26.6 30 Leskovac 26200G08 0 75 25 100 25.3 24.0 23.4 -0.5 43.6 45.4 23.0 24.6 26.0 30 Loznica 29500G14 0 78 22 100 25.8 24.9 24.5 -0.4 43.6 46.5 24.0 25.3 26.6 30 Negotin 38800G20 0 77 23 100 26.5 25.6 23.3 -0.3 46.1 48.0 24.5 25.9 27.2 30 Nis 06700G01 0 76 24 100 24.7 23.3 24.5 -0.7 41.1 43.6 22.6 24.1 25.5 30 Palic 37000G16 0 75 25 100 24.3 23.0 21.7 -0.6 42.2 44.5 22.2 23.7 25.0 30 Pozega 16800G06 0 76 24 100 25.1 24.0 25.2 -0.4 44.3 46.0 22.9 24.5 26.0 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 52 48 0 100 18.1 18.9 19.5 -0.8 39.1 41.9 18.4 19.8 21.2 30 Sjenica 27900G10 0 77 23 100 25.4 24.5 24.9 -0.3 45.8 47.5 23.4 24.8 26.2 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 0 76 24 100 25.2 23.8 24.4 -0.7 40.9 43.3 23.0 24.6 26.0 30 Sombor 26600G07 0 76 24 100 25.2 24.1 25.1 -0.3 45.8 47.1 22.9 24.5 26.0 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 51 49 0 100 22.5 23.8 23.5 -0.4 44.6 46.4 22.7 24.3 25.7 30 Valjevo 28500G11 0 78 22 100 25.4 24.4 23.9 -0.3 44.9 47.2 23.4 24.8 26.2 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 0 76 24 100 25.5 24.6 22.9 -0.4 44.3 46.3 23.7 25.0 26.2 30 Vranje 18300G04 0 78 22 100 25.3 24.3 24.5 -0.3 45.8 47.6 23.2 24.7 26.1 30 Vrsac 39200G15 0 78 22 100 25.8 24.8 24.2 -0.5 42.9 45.8 24.1 25.4 26.5 30 Zajecar 36700G16 0 75 25 100 19.8 18.4 20.6 -0.7 40.9 43.5 17.7 19.2 20.6 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 0 76 24 100 25.2 24.1 25.3 -0.4 44.7 46.4 23.0 24.5 26.0 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.6-0.7 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------