***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** mxt1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama mxt2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anmx2t: prognozirana anomalija, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctmxt: prognoziran percentil u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala apcmxt: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 22.08.2013. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 09.09.2013.-15.09.2013. ************************************************************** ghid t<33 33<=t<=66 t>66 mxt1 mxt2 eavg anmx2t pctmxt avpmxt 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 51 49 0 100 9999.0 25.0 25.3 0.5 56.1 54.1 9999.0 9999.0 9999.0 25 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 54 46 0 100 22.9 24.8 24.8 0.1 51.6 50.6 23.2 24.7 26.0 30 Becej 27400G00 54 46 0 100 23.0 25.2 25.3 0.5 56.4 54.3 23.3 24.7 26.0 30 Beograd 28900G14 54 46 0 100 15.7 18.0 23.8 0.3 53.5 52.7 16.1 17.7 19.3 30 Crni Vrh 38400G13 52 48 0 100 23.4 25.7 23.9 0.5 55.6 54.2 23.6 25.2 26.6 30 Cuprija 39700G22 55 45 0 100 22.0 24.7 22.1 0.6 57.3 55.8 22.4 24.0 25.6 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 52 48 0 100 22.6 24.4 24.7 0.1 51.3 50.5 22.9 24.3 25.6 30 Kikinda 37800G18 54 46 0 100 11.8 14.1 22.3 0.5 56.5 54.7 12.2 13.6 14.9 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 54 46 0 100 23.0 25.4 24.2 0.6 57.5 55.5 23.3 24.8 26.2 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 55 45 0 100 22.6 25.1 23.0 0.6 57.3 55.3 23.0 24.5 25.8 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 52 48 0 100 23.2 25.6 23.7 0.7 58.4 56.2 23.4 24.9 26.3 30 Krusevac 38200G21 54 46 0 100 22.2 24.8 23.5 0.6 57.7 55.7 22.5 24.1 25.6 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 56 44 0 100 23.1 25.8 23.1 0.6 57.2 55.4 23.6 25.1 26.6 30 Leskovac 26200G08 57 43 0 100 22.9 25.0 23.6 0.4 55.1 52.8 23.3 24.6 25.9 30 Loznica 29500G14 52 48 0 100 23.6 25.7 24.4 0.4 54.8 53.8 23.9 25.3 26.6 30 Negotin 38800G20 54 46 0 100 23.7 26.4 23.5 0.6 57.7 55.8 24.1 25.7 27.2 30 Nis 06700G01 55 45 0 100 22.0 23.6 24.2 -0.1 48.9 48.8 22.3 23.7 25.0 30 Palic 37000G16 58 42 0 100 21.8 24.1 22.1 0.5 56.1 54.2 22.2 23.6 24.9 30 Pozega 16800G06 55 45 0 100 22.7 24.6 25.0 0.2 53.0 51.5 23.0 24.4 25.7 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 58 42 0 100 17.8 19.9 19.9 0.2 52.6 51.8 18.3 19.7 21.1 30 Sjenica 27900G10 53 47 0 100 23.3 25.5 24.9 0.5 56.7 54.8 23.6 25.0 26.3 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 58 42 0 100 22.6 24.2 24.2 -0.1 48.6 48.6 23.0 24.3 25.6 30 Sombor 26600G07 55 45 0 100 22.8 24.9 25.0 0.4 55.2 52.9 23.2 24.5 25.8 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 56 44 0 100 22.7 24.9 23.7 0.6 57.2 54.7 23.0 24.4 25.7 30 Valjevo 28500G11 53 47 0 100 23.0 25.1 23.9 0.4 54.8 53.5 23.3 24.7 26.1 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 55 45 0 100 23.0 25.2 22.9 0.3 53.6 52.8 23.4 24.9 26.3 30 Vranje 18300G04 53 47 0 100 22.9 25.0 24.4 0.4 54.7 53.2 23.2 24.6 26.0 30 Vrsac 39200G15 54 46 0 100 23.5 25.7 24.2 0.4 54.9 53.9 23.8 25.3 26.7 30 Zajecar 36700G16 57 43 0 100 17.3 19.4 21.1 0.4 54.8 53.1 17.7 19.1 20.3 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 53 47 0 100 22.8 24.7 25.1 0.3 53.2 51.9 23.1 24.5 25.8 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.6-0.7 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------