***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** mxt1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama mxt2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anmx2t: prognozirana anomalija, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctmxt: prognoziran percentil u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala apcmxt: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 22.08.2013. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 16.09.2013.-22.09.2013. ************************************************************** ghid t<33 33<=t<=66 t>66 mxt1 mxt2 eavg anmx2t pctmxt avpmxt 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 51 49 0 100 9999.0 22.7 24.0 0.3 53.4 51.9 9999.0 9999.0 9999.0 25 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 54 46 0 100 21.1 23.1 23.6 0.0 50.4 49.6 21.5 23.1 24.6 30 Becej 27400G00 52 48 0 100 21.4 23.6 24.0 0.3 53.7 51.8 21.7 23.3 24.7 30 Beograd 28900G14 54 46 0 100 14.4 16.3 22.3 0.0 49.5 49.1 14.8 16.3 17.8 30 Crni Vrh 38400G13 55 45 0 100 21.8 24.0 22.5 0.1 51.8 50.6 22.2 23.8 25.3 30 Cuprija 39700G22 0 76 24 100 23.8 23.5 20.7 0.3 53.4 51.7 21.7 23.2 24.6 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 57 43 0 100 20.7 22.7 23.4 0.0 49.7 49.3 21.2 22.7 24.2 30 Kikinda 37800G18 55 45 0 100 11.2 13.2 20.9 0.2 52.0 50.4 11.6 13.0 14.4 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 55 45 0 100 21.4 23.8 22.9 0.3 53.7 51.8 21.8 23.4 25.0 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 55 45 0 100 21.2 23.5 21.6 0.2 52.8 51.1 21.6 23.2 24.8 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 55 45 0 100 21.8 24.0 22.2 0.3 54.0 52.0 22.2 23.7 25.1 30 Krusevac 38200G21 55 45 0 100 21.0 23.4 22.0 0.3 53.4 51.3 21.4 23.0 24.6 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 54 46 0 100 22.3 24.5 21.6 0.3 53.1 51.4 22.6 24.2 25.7 30 Leskovac 26200G08 61 39 0 100 20.9 23.4 22.3 0.1 51.8 50.6 21.5 23.3 24.9 30 Loznica 29500G14 58 42 0 100 21.9 23.7 22.8 0.0 49.9 49.2 22.3 23.7 25.0 30 Negotin 38800G20 55 45 0 100 22.7 24.9 22.0 0.3 53.4 51.7 23.1 24.6 26.1 30 Nis 06700G01 57 43 0 100 20.3 22.2 23.0 -0.1 48.5 48.2 20.8 22.3 23.8 30 Palic 37000G16 60 40 0 100 20.2 22.5 20.7 0.1 51.3 50.1 20.8 22.4 23.9 30 Pozega 16800G06 54 46 0 100 20.9 23.0 23.8 0.1 51.6 50.4 21.3 22.9 24.4 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 55 45 0 100 17.0 18.7 18.5 -0.1 48.3 48.0 17.4 18.9 20.3 30 Sjenica 27900G10 53 47 0 100 21.6 23.7 23.6 0.3 53.5 51.8 21.9 23.4 24.8 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 58 42 0 100 20.8 22.9 23.1 -0.1 48.4 48.0 21.3 23.0 24.6 30 Sombor 26600G07 55 45 0 100 21.1 23.4 23.8 0.2 53.0 51.4 21.5 23.1 24.6 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 61 39 0 100 20.9 23.4 22.4 0.3 53.1 51.3 21.5 23.1 24.6 30 Valjevo 28500G11 52 48 0 100 21.3 23.2 22.5 0.1 51.8 50.8 21.6 23.0 24.4 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 54 46 0 100 22.1 24.1 21.5 0.0 50.4 49.4 22.4 24.1 25.6 30 Vranje 18300G04 52 48 0 100 21.2 23.1 23.0 0.2 52.0 51.0 21.5 22.9 24.3 30 Vrsac 39200G15 57 43 0 100 22.0 23.9 22.7 0.0 50.6 49.7 22.4 23.9 25.3 30 Zajecar 36700G16 59 41 0 100 15.8 18.1 19.7 0.0 50.5 49.6 16.4 18.1 19.7 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 52 48 0 100 21.0 23.0 23.9 0.1 51.5 50.5 21.3 22.9 24.4 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.6-0.7 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------