***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** mxt1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama mxt2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anmx2t: prognozirana anomalija, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctmxt: prognoziran percentil u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala apcmxt: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 22.08.2013. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 26.08.2013.-22.09.2013. ************************************************************** ghid t<33 33<=t<=66 t>66 mxt1 mxt2 eavg anmx2t pctmxt avpmxt 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 0 79 21 100 9999.0 24.8 25.4 0.3 55.3 53.7 9999.0 9999.0 9999.0 25 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 0 75 25 100 25.1 24.6 24.9 -0.1 48.2 47.7 23.8 24.7 25.6 30 Becej 27400G00 0 79 21 100 25.1 25.0 25.4 0.3 54.5 52.8 23.9 24.8 25.6 30 Beograd 28900G14 0 82 18 100 18.2 18.0 23.9 0.1 51.9 51.3 16.9 17.9 18.7 29 Crni Vrh 38400G13 0 84 16 100 25.6 25.5 24.0 0.2 54.1 52.9 24.5 25.3 26.2 30 Cuprija 39700G22 0 85 15 100 24.6 24.8 22.2 0.4 57.8 56.3 23.5 24.4 25.2 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 0 76 24 100 24.8 24.3 24.8 -0.1 48.2 47.8 23.5 24.4 25.2 30 Kikinda 37800G18 0 84 16 100 14.1 14.0 22.2 0.2 52.5 51.5 13.2 13.9 14.6 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 0 85 15 100 25.1 25.2 24.5 0.4 56.1 54.5 24.0 24.9 25.7 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 0 85 15 100 24.9 24.9 23.0 0.2 54.1 52.7 23.8 24.7 25.5 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 0 84 16 100 25.3 25.4 23.8 0.4 56.8 55.1 24.2 25.1 25.9 30 Krusevac 38200G21 0 85 15 100 24.7 24.7 23.5 0.4 56.1 54.7 23.6 24.4 25.3 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 0 84 16 100 25.7 25.9 23.4 0.5 58.2 56.5 24.6 25.5 26.3 30 Leskovac 26200G08 0 78 22 100 25.0 24.6 23.5 0.0 49.2 48.2 23.8 24.7 25.5 30 Loznica 29500G14 0 84 16 100 25.7 25.6 24.8 0.2 53.7 53.1 24.6 25.4 26.2 30 Negotin 38800G20 0 84 16 100 26.3 26.4 23.8 0.5 58.1 56.3 25.1 26.0 26.8 30 Nis 06700G01 57 43 0 100 22.7 23.7 24.3 -0.3 44.7 45.0 23.0 23.9 24.8 30 Palic 37000G16 0 81 19 100 24.1 23.8 21.9 0.0 50.0 49.1 23.0 23.8 24.5 30 Pozega 16800G06 0 76 24 100 24.9 24.5 25.1 0.0 49.8 48.9 23.6 24.5 25.3 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 0 78 22 100 20.3 19.8 19.7 -0.3 45.0 45.1 19.2 20.0 20.8 30 Sjenica 27900G10 0 83 17 100 25.2 25.1 25.1 0.3 54.5 53.1 24.1 24.9 25.7 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 54 46 0 100 23.4 24.2 24.3 -0.4 44.0 44.4 23.6 24.5 25.4 30 Sombor 26600G07 0 77 23 100 24.9 24.7 25.1 0.1 52.2 50.7 23.7 24.6 25.4 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 0 80 20 100 24.7 24.5 23.6 0.1 52.3 50.8 23.6 24.4 25.2 30 Valjevo 28500G11 0 82 18 100 25.1 25.0 24.0 0.2 53.1 52.1 23.9 24.8 25.7 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 0 83 17 100 25.5 25.5 23.1 0.3 54.3 53.3 24.4 25.3 26.0 30 Vranje 18300G04 0 79 21 100 24.9 24.8 24.5 0.2 53.2 52.1 23.7 24.6 25.5 30 Vrsac 39200G15 0 83 17 100 25.7 25.7 24.4 0.2 54.0 53.2 24.6 25.5 26.3 30 Zajecar 36700G16 0 79 21 100 19.6 19.2 20.9 -0.1 47.6 47.1 18.6 19.3 20.1 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 0 77 23 100 24.9 24.6 25.3 0.0 50.7 49.8 23.6 24.5 25.4 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.6-0.7 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------