***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** PAD1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama PAD2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anacp%: prognoziran procenat od normale, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctacp: prognoziran percentil: srednjak ansambla u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala apcacp: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 22.08.2013. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 26.08.2013.-01.09.2013. ************************************************************** ghid p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 pad1 pad2 eavg anacp% pctacp avpacp 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 0 81 19 100 9999.0 11.8 16.4 127.0 72.1 61.5 9999.0 9999.0 9999.0 25 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 0 80 20 100 12.1 19.0 16.4 125.5 71.5 59.6 4.6 9.2 15.9 30 Becej 27400G00 0 80 20 100 14.0 19.9 14.1 110.4 67.5 58.0 4.5 10.0 18.7 30 Beograd 28900G14 0 79 21 100 14.1 21.8 15.4 120.4 70.8 58.4 4.9 10.4 18.3 29 Crni Vrh 38400G13 0 77 23 100 15.2 20.2 14.3 110.5 67.8 56.7 5.3 11.1 19.0 30 Cuprija 39700G22 0 78 22 100 11.9 15.1 14.1 103.6 66.2 53.6 4.5 8.9 15.1 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 0 80 20 100 8.5 14.1 17.3 133.6 73.7 62.3 3.4 6.5 11.0 30 Kikinda 37800G18 0 79 21 100 21.3 25.1 13.4 96.9 63.6 54.4 8.9 16.5 27.0 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 0 78 22 100 15.6 19.3 13.9 103.7 65.8 56.3 6.5 12.1 19.6 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 0 79 21 100 16.7 20.9 14.9 102.7 65.3 56.8 6.6 12.7 21.3 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 0 75 25 100 14.2 16.5 12.2 100.0 64.5 53.1 5.7 10.6 17.1 30 Krusevac 38200G21 0 78 22 100 11.2 12.6 10.5 90.9 62.2 51.6 4.0 8.2 14.4 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 0 79 21 100 12.6 14.0 11.7 89.0 61.6 51.0 4.4 9.2 16.3 30 Leskovac 26200G08 0 80 20 100 16.6 26.9 18.6 125.0 71.5 61.1 5.9 12.2 22.1 30 Loznica 29500G14 0 77 23 100 5.9 9.6 14.7 126.5 72.5 59.1 1.8 4.1 7.6 30 Negotin 38800G20 0 77 23 100 13.1 16.1 12.4 99.6 64.9 52.7 4.2 9.1 16.9 30 Nis 06700G01 0 42 58 100 16.4 19.5 17.7 139.5 75.1 62.9 5.7 9.8 15.1 30 Palic 37000G16 0 81 19 100 12.5 17.6 17.8 115.8 69.0 61.2 5.4 10.0 16.1 30 Pozega 16800G06 0 78 22 100 11.2 15.5 15.3 116.1 68.9 57.6 4.5 8.6 14.1 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 0 81 19 100 16.8 21.8 18.3 111.1 67.6 60.1 8.8 14.1 20.9 30 Sjenica 27900G10 0 79 21 100 12.9 17.8 14.5 110.0 67.7 58.4 4.9 9.6 16.7 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 0 39 61 100 17.7 18.5 17.4 123.6 71.3 59.8 5.7 10.1 15.9 30 Sombor 26600G07 0 78 22 100 13.3 17.4 14.3 108.3 66.5 56.3 4.7 9.8 17.1 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 0 82 18 100 17.1 25.5 16.6 116.2 69.1 60.2 6.3 13.1 23.0 30 Valjevo 28500G11 0 81 19 100 12.8 22.6 18.7 128.8 72.7 63.6 3.9 9.3 17.4 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 0 78 22 100 10.5 11.2 9.8 84.6 60.7 49.4 3.9 7.7 13.3 30 Vranje 18300G04 0 40 60 100 19.9 23.1 19.4 134.5 74.0 64.3 4.3 9.5 17.3 30 Vrsac 39200G15 0 77 23 100 9.0 12.8 13.8 114.3 69.4 56.1 3.3 6.6 11.4 30 Zajecar 36700G16 0 82 18 100 20.6 29.2 18.7 115.8 68.8 60.5 9.1 16.6 27.0 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 0 79 21 100 11.0 15.9 15.5 120.8 70.3 58.8 4.6 8.5 14.0 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ padavine > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.7-0.8 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ padavine < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.7-0.8 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------