***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** PAD1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama PAD2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anacp%: prognoziran procenat od normale, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctacp: prognoziran percentil: srednjak ansambla u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala apcacp: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 22.08.2013. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 02.09.2013.-08.09.2013. ************************************************************** ghid p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 pad1 pad2 eavg anacp% pctacp avpacp 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 57 43 0 100 9999.0 4.9 8.9 96.9 63.5 40.5 9999.0 9999.0 9999.0 25 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 60 40 0 100 2.0 6.2 9.2 89.8 61.2 41.8 2.0 4.2 7.3 30 Becej 27400G00 60 40 0 100 2.6 9.0 9.5 97.8 63.5 43.5 2.6 5.4 9.9 30 Beograd 28900G14 59 41 0 100 4.6 15.9 9.5 103.0 66.0 44.0 4.5 9.1 15.9 30 Crni Vrh 38400G13 54 46 0 100 3.7 10.8 9.9 99.7 64.7 46.8 3.5 6.7 11.3 30 Cuprija 39700G22 58 42 0 100 3.8 15.0 13.9 108.2 67.9 49.2 3.3 7.7 14.1 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 57 43 0 100 3.2 8.9 9.5 94.1 62.9 42.9 3.1 5.8 9.7 30 Kikinda 37800G18 55 45 0 100 7.8 24.7 12.3 99.9 64.7 48.2 7.1 14.6 25.9 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 56 44 0 100 3.8 10.8 10.4 99.3 64.1 46.3 3.7 6.9 11.4 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 55 45 0 100 4.4 12.8 12.1 95.4 63.2 47.2 4.2 8.1 13.9 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 55 45 0 100 4.3 11.5 9.2 98.6 64.6 46.0 4.2 7.5 12.0 30 Krusevac 38200G21 57 43 0 100 4.2 14.7 9.4 102.0 65.7 46.2 3.8 8.3 14.8 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 58 42 0 100 4.7 14.3 10.8 102.9 66.0 47.8 4.7 8.7 14.3 30 Leskovac 26200G08 56 44 0 100 4.1 12.4 13.4 97.4 63.9 47.7 3.8 7.6 13.3 30 Loznica 29500G14 61 39 0 100 1.9 10.8 9.5 118.9 70.8 45.5 1.8 4.4 8.8 30 Negotin 38800G20 58 42 0 100 4.2 13.2 9.8 100.1 65.3 46.6 4.1 8.0 13.5 30 Nis 06700G01 62 38 0 100 2.7 7.7 8.7 82.9 58.6 39.7 2.8 5.6 9.9 30 Palic 37000G16 54 46 0 100 4.4 13.2 14.9 95.6 63.1 48.8 3.9 8.1 14.5 30 Pozega 16800G06 60 40 0 100 3.1 9.7 9.2 90.9 61.4 42.6 3.1 6.4 11.4 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 51 49 0 100 5.9 17.3 18.6 103.1 65.0 51.3 5.0 10.2 17.9 30 Sjenica 27900G10 61 39 0 100 3.1 10.6 9.1 102.6 64.9 43.0 3.2 6.4 10.9 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 60 40 0 100 4.2 10.2 9.0 83.9 58.6 42.7 4.3 7.9 12.8 30 Sombor 26600G07 60 40 0 100 2.7 8.5 9.8 92.5 61.4 43.2 2.6 5.6 10.0 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 56 44 0 100 3.4 11.3 12.6 96.4 63.3 47.4 2.9 6.7 12.5 30 Valjevo 28500G11 53 47 0 100 3.3 11.3 10.7 101.8 65.4 43.5 2.8 6.1 11.5 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 63 37 0 100 3.2 12.8 10.0 119.8 70.9 49.6 3.3 6.5 10.9 30 Vranje 18300G04 52 48 0 100 3.0 9.1 10.4 97.1 64.1 42.9 2.6 5.4 9.7 30 Vrsac 39200G15 58 42 0 100 3.5 11.4 9.5 108.8 67.8 45.2 3.5 6.6 10.8 30 Zajecar 36700G16 54 46 0 100 7.2 21.3 16.5 99.4 64.1 49.9 6.5 13.1 22.6 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 59 41 0 100 2.5 8.5 9.5 94.7 63.0 43.3 2.4 5.1 9.5 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ padavine > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.7-0.8 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ padavine < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.7-0.8 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------