***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** PAD1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama PAD2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anacp%: prognoziran procenat od normale, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctacp: prognoziran percentil: srednjak ansambla u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala apcacp: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 22.08.2013. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 09.09.2013.-15.09.2013. ************************************************************** ghid p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 pad1 pad2 eavg anacp% pctacp avpacp 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 62 38 0 100 9999.0 13.4 8.1 90.0 62.3 41.6 9999.0 9999.0 9999.0 25 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 60 40 0 100 4.6 15.7 9.7 98.1 65.0 45.8 4.6 9.3 16.1 30 Becej 27400G00 62 38 0 100 4.0 12.9 8.0 85.4 60.8 42.6 4.0 8.6 15.6 30 Beograd 28900G14 64 36 0 100 3.8 12.8 8.0 83.1 60.3 40.8 4.0 8.6 15.6 30 Crni Vrh 38400G13 61 39 0 100 2.9 9.2 7.9 75.4 57.7 40.3 2.8 6.5 12.8 30 Cuprija 39700G22 64 36 0 100 2.8 10.4 12.2 100.6 65.9 43.9 2.9 5.9 10.4 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 64 36 0 100 4.0 16.7 10.2 102.3 66.4 45.6 4.1 9.0 16.4 30 Kikinda 37800G18 58 42 0 100 5.8 14.6 9.5 79.5 58.1 42.0 5.6 11.1 19.0 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 61 39 0 100 3.8 9.5 7.8 71.0 56.1 40.2 3.8 7.7 13.2 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 59 41 0 100 4.4 9.9 8.9 71.0 55.2 40.8 4.4 8.4 14.0 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 60 40 0 100 3.0 8.4 7.4 76.1 57.7 40.1 2.9 6.1 11.3 30 Krusevac 38200G21 60 40 0 100 3.4 10.6 8.3 91.2 62.5 41.9 3.4 6.8 11.8 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 66 34 0 100 2.7 10.9 10.5 103.9 66.9 44.5 3.0 6.1 10.7 30 Leskovac 26200G08 58 42 0 100 5.0 15.1 10.1 85.2 59.0 44.6 4.5 10.5 19.9 30 Loznica 29500G14 66 34 0 100 2.0 8.0 7.3 91.1 62.8 41.8 2.1 4.8 9.0 30 Negotin 38800G20 63 37 0 100 3.2 10.1 8.9 92.0 63.1 42.2 3.2 6.6 11.2 30 Nis 06700G01 57 43 0 100 4.5 17.7 10.9 108.5 67.8 48.1 4.0 8.9 16.5 30 Palic 37000G16 59 41 0 100 5.3 11.7 10.4 71.8 53.9 41.6 5.2 10.2 17.1 30 Pozega 16800G06 58 42 0 100 5.1 16.2 9.2 95.6 63.9 45.5 4.9 9.9 17.5 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 53 47 0 100 6.3 14.3 13.6 78.1 56.3 43.7 5.5 11.4 20.0 30 Sjenica 27900G10 63 37 0 100 4.0 11.4 7.2 76.3 58.2 40.2 4.2 8.5 15.0 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 53 47 0 100 5.2 17.7 11.0 108.7 67.3 48.6 4.5 9.5 16.9 30 Sombor 26600G07 58 42 0 100 4.6 13.4 8.8 93.2 62.6 45.4 4.5 8.8 15.0 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 63 37 0 100 4.2 12.0 9.2 77.1 56.4 42.3 4.3 9.3 17.0 30 Valjevo 28500G11 60 40 0 100 4.5 13.3 8.7 83.7 60.5 42.0 4.3 9.2 16.1 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 64 36 0 100 2.4 10.8 8.8 104.9 66.5 42.9 2.5 5.6 10.6 30 Vranje 18300G04 64 36 0 100 4.4 15.5 9.2 89.6 62.3 42.7 4.5 9.7 17.7 30 Vrsac 39200G15 65 35 0 100 2.4 8.3 8.0 88.3 62.1 40.9 2.6 5.4 9.5 30 Zajecar 36700G16 57 43 0 100 9.2 19.3 11.7 75.8 55.0 42.3 9.0 16.5 26.8 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 61 39 0 100 4.0 14.1 9.1 94.7 64.0 44.5 4.0 8.5 15.1 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ padavine > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.7-0.8 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ padavine < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.7-0.8 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------