***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** PAD1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama PAD2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anacp%: prognoziran procenat od normale, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctacp: prognoziran percentil: srednjak ansambla u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala apcacp: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 22.08.2013. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 16.09.2013.-22.09.2013. ************************************************************** ghid p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 pad1 pad2 eavg anacp% pctacp avpacp 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 65 35 0 100 9999.0 11.6 6.1 94.1 63.5 41.4 9999.0 9999.0 9999.0 25 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 62 38 0 100 3.5 12.3 7.6 109.4 67.9 44.9 3.7 6.9 11.5 30 Becej 27400G00 60 40 0 100 3.7 11.4 6.6 95.4 63.7 40.9 3.8 7.3 12.4 30 Beograd 28900G14 64 36 0 100 3.5 11.8 6.6 90.3 63.0 40.6 3.7 7.5 13.1 30 Crni Vrh 38400G13 58 42 0 100 2.9 9.4 7.2 93.6 63.5 41.2 2.7 5.7 10.3 30 Cuprija 39700G22 62 38 0 100 3.3 9.0 8.2 84.5 60.6 40.8 3.5 6.4 10.5 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 59 41 0 100 3.8 13.1 7.8 110.5 68.2 46.1 3.8 7.3 12.2 30 Kikinda 37800G18 55 45 0 100 5.9 20.8 9.4 110.2 68.0 45.7 5.3 10.9 19.3 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 56 44 0 100 3.7 12.7 7.9 99.5 65.7 43.5 3.4 7.2 12.9 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 55 45 0 100 4.4 13.7 9.7 106.6 67.2 45.3 4.1 7.9 13.2 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 60 40 0 100 2.9 10.2 6.8 93.7 63.8 40.8 2.8 6.0 11.1 30 Krusevac 38200G21 60 40 0 100 3.1 11.3 7.0 106.9 67.2 43.0 3.1 6.3 10.8 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 63 37 0 100 3.0 10.5 7.4 95.3 63.8 41.6 3.1 6.4 11.3 30 Leskovac 26200G08 59 41 0 100 4.5 17.8 10.5 110.4 67.6 44.5 4.3 9.2 16.8 30 Loznica 29500G14 60 40 0 100 2.6 10.6 6.3 99.1 65.9 42.3 2.5 5.6 10.7 30 Negotin 38800G20 64 36 0 100 2.4 7.8 6.5 85.3 60.9 39.4 2.6 5.3 9.2 30 Nis 06700G01 59 41 0 100 3.7 11.6 8.1 106.8 67.6 45.9 3.8 6.9 11.2 30 Palic 37000G16 53 47 0 100 4.4 16.1 12.3 112.9 68.7 47.5 3.8 8.1 14.6 30 Pozega 16800G06 65 35 0 100 2.9 11.9 7.5 107.8 67.2 43.2 3.1 6.4 11.4 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 53 47 0 100 5.2 19.1 14.8 117.1 69.9 49.8 4.5 9.4 16.6 30 Sjenica 27900G10 57 43 0 100 3.8 13.3 6.6 95.5 64.2 41.9 3.2 7.6 14.3 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 61 39 0 100 3.6 12.9 8.4 110.6 68.4 46.0 3.6 7.1 12.0 30 Sombor 26600G07 63 37 0 100 3.2 11.9 7.7 105.5 66.3 41.6 3.3 6.7 11.8 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 56 44 0 100 4.3 16.2 9.9 105.8 66.5 44.3 3.7 8.4 15.9 30 Valjevo 28500G11 63 37 0 100 3.5 11.7 7.3 97.0 64.8 42.9 3.7 7.2 12.2 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 64 36 0 100 3.1 11.2 7.0 109.6 68.2 43.0 3.4 6.3 10.5 30 Vranje 18300G04 62 38 0 100 3.2 12.1 7.3 101.3 65.9 43.8 3.2 6.8 12.1 30 Vrsac 39200G15 62 38 0 100 2.7 8.8 6.0 83.8 61.4 39.8 2.6 5.7 10.4 30 Zajecar 36700G16 54 46 0 100 6.6 23.6 13.5 113.6 68.8 48.3 6.0 12.2 21.3 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 62 38 0 100 2.7 10.8 7.0 104.5 66.3 43.4 2.6 5.8 10.6 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ padavine > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.7-0.8 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ padavine < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.7-0.8 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------