***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** PAD1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama PAD2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anacp%: prognoziran procenat od normale, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctacp: prognoziran percentil: srednjak ansambla u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala apcacp: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 22.08.2013. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 26.08.2013.-22.09.2013. ************************************************************** ghid p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 pad1 pad2 eavg anacp% pctacp avpacp 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 0 78 22 100 9999.0 44.2 39.4 105.2 62.9 54.6 9999.0 9999.0 9999.0 25 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 51 49 0 100 28.0 53.2 42.9 106.9 63.2 54.4 27.7 40.7 56.1 30 Becej 27400G00 0 75 25 100 54.5 54.7 38.1 98.6 59.1 51.3 28.8 44.4 63.7 30 Beograd 28900G14 0 75 25 100 57.7 61.0 39.5 101.5 61.3 53.7 28.0 45.7 68.7 29 Crni Vrh 38400G13 0 77 23 100 50.4 49.9 39.3 95.8 57.9 51.1 26.3 41.4 60.0 30 Cuprija 39700G22 0 75 25 100 46.6 48.0 48.4 100.3 60.3 52.7 23.3 37.5 55.0 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 0 77 23 100 46.9 54.1 44.9 111.8 65.5 55.9 27.8 40.0 54.6 30 Kikinda 37800G18 51 49 0 100 50.0 83.9 44.6 95.7 56.9 50.3 49.3 72.6 100.7 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 0 78 22 100 54.0 52.4 39.9 93.5 56.2 49.5 33.1 46.9 62.8 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 51 49 0 100 35.8 56.2 45.7 93.4 55.5 49.3 35.5 50.8 68.3 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 59 41 0 100 26.8 46.8 35.6 92.5 56.2 48.9 28.2 41.5 56.9 30 Krusevac 38200G21 53 47 0 100 27.6 49.4 35.3 96.7 58.4 50.3 27.7 41.5 58.1 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 51 49 0 100 24.8 48.2 40.5 97.3 58.9 51.2 23.8 38.5 57.1 30 Leskovac 26200G08 53 47 0 100 43.9 77.3 52.5 105.1 61.8 53.4 44.4 62.4 83.6 30 Loznica 29500G14 0 77 23 100 34.5 41.8 37.7 111.3 66.0 57.3 16.5 27.6 41.8 30 Negotin 38800G20 57 43 0 100 22.8 45.4 37.5 95.0 57.5 49.7 23.6 37.8 55.7 30 Nis 06700G01 0 76 24 100 50.7 57.4 45.4 111.3 65.2 57.0 30.6 43.4 58.2 30 Palic 37000G16 0 76 24 100 60.1 59.2 55.4 98.4 57.7 50.8 35.9 51.4 69.1 30 Pozega 16800G06 52 48 0 100 33.5 56.6 41.2 103.4 61.6 53.5 33.6 46.4 60.7 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 0 78 22 100 71.3 73.1 65.2 101.2 59.0 52.6 43.9 62.0 83.1 30 Sjenica 27900G10 0 79 21 100 53.4 54.8 37.5 97.5 58.7 51.7 29.8 45.3 64.0 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 53 47 0 100 33.1 60.2 45.8 107.6 63.5 56.3 33.6 47.2 62.8 30 Sombor 26600G07 52 48 0 100 34.0 54.7 40.6 100.2 59.9 52.3 34.3 46.6 60.5 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 52 48 0 100 39.9 68.2 48.2 99.3 58.5 51.1 39.8 57.9 78.8 30 Valjevo 28500G11 0 79 21 100 51.7 59.3 45.4 105.7 63.1 56.2 25.7 42.3 63.5 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 51 49 0 100 21.1 44.3 35.7 102.6 61.7 52.3 20.1 33.0 49.1 30 Vranje 18300G04 0 78 22 100 52.8 61.1 46.4 108.6 64.3 56.3 27.3 43.5 63.6 30 Vrsac 39200G15 54 46 0 100 22.8 42.3 37.3 100.7 61.0 52.7 23.2 34.0 46.7 30 Zajecar 36700G16 52 48 0 100 56.4 93.7 60.4 100.7 58.8 51.7 56.6 80.0 107.2 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 52 48 0 100 28.0 51.8 41.1 105.0 62.3 53.5 28.2 40.5 55.4 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ padavine > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.7-0.8 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ padavine < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.7-0.8 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------