***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** mnt1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama mnt2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anmn2t: prognozirana anomalija, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctmnt: prognoziran percentil u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala apcmnt: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 22.08.2019. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 26.08.2019.-01.09.2019. ************************************************************** ghid t<33 33<=t<=66 t>66 mnt1 mnt2 eavg anmn2t pctmnt avpmnt 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 0 0 100 100 15.6 19.2 21.3 4.5 99.4 98.8 13.1 14.0 14.9 25 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 0 0 100 100 15.4 18.8 20.6 4.2 98.6 97.9 12.6 13.6 14.6 30 Becej 27400G00 0 0 100 100 17.6 20.7 20.9 3.8 98.4 97.8 14.8 15.8 16.8 30 Beograd 28900G14 0 0 100 100 13.1 16.1 17.5 3.1 97.5 96.0 10.1 11.2 12.2 29 Crni Vrh 38400G13 0 0 100 100 14.3 16.7 18.6 3.4 97.5 96.8 11.8 12.7 13.5 30 Cuprija 39700G22 0 0 100 100 13.2 15.4 14.9 2.6 97.6 96.1 11.0 11.8 12.6 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 0 0 100 100 15.6 18.8 20.5 4.0 98.7 98.0 13.0 13.9 14.8 30 Kikinda 37800G18 0 2 98 100 8.6 10.4 15.1 2.4 94.6 93.1 6.2 7.1 7.9 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 0 0 100 100 15.4 17.9 18.3 3.1 97.7 96.9 12.9 13.8 14.6 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 0 1 99 100 15.0 17.1 16.4 2.9 97.2 96.1 12.8 13.6 14.4 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 0 2 98 100 14.8 15.9 17.3 2.3 91.5 89.8 12.5 13.3 14.1 30 Krusevac 38200G21 0 2 98 100 13.1 14.4 16.1 2.3 93.1 91.4 11.0 11.7 12.5 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 0 10 90 100 14.1 14.8 15.2 1.5 85.6 82.0 12.2 12.9 13.7 30 Leskovac 26200G08 0 1 99 100 15.8 17.6 17.5 2.7 95.7 94.2 13.4 14.3 15.1 30 Loznica 29500G14 0 0 100 100 16.5 18.4 18.8 2.4 96.3 93.5 14.2 15.0 15.8 30 Negotin 38800G20 0 4 96 100 15.7 16.8 16.3 1.9 90.9 88.4 13.4 14.3 15.1 30 Nis 06700G01 0 0 100 100 15.8 18.7 20.1 4.1 98.7 98.0 13.3 14.2 15.0 30 Palic 37000G16 0 1 99 100 13.6 15.1 15.2 2.4 94.9 93.5 11.4 12.2 12.9 30 Pozega 16800G06 0 0 100 100 15.4 18.1 20.6 4.0 98.2 97.6 13.0 13.9 14.7 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 0 3 97 100 9.7 10.6 13.1 2.0 90.7 89.0 7.6 8.4 9.1 30 Sjenica 27900G10 0 0 100 100 15.0 17.6 19.4 3.2 98.1 97.2 12.6 13.5 14.3 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 0 0 100 100 14.7 17.2 20.1 3.8 98.3 97.6 12.4 13.2 14.0 30 Sombor 26600G07 0 0 100 100 14.8 16.8 20.2 3.4 96.8 96.0 12.5 13.3 14.1 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 0 0 100 100 15.3 17.2 17.6 2.7 95.9 94.8 13.0 13.9 14.7 30 Valjevo 28500G11 0 0 100 100 15.3 18.8 20.4 4.3 99.4 98.9 12.9 13.8 14.6 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 0 20 80 100 14.0 14.5 14.1 1.3 81.7 78.4 12.2 12.9 13.6 30 Vranje 18300G04 0 0 100 100 15.8 20.2 20.7 4.5 99.4 98.7 12.7 13.8 14.9 30 Vrsac 39200G15 0 1 99 100 14.4 16.4 17.4 2.5 96.0 93.5 11.8 12.7 13.6 30 Zajecar 36700G16 0 1 99 100 12.8 14.4 14.4 2.2 93.3 92.1 10.1 11.1 12.0 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 0 0 100 100 15.9 19.2 21.0 4.2 98.6 97.8 13.1 14.1 15.0 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.6-0.7 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------