***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** mnt1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama mnt2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anmn2t: prognozirana anomalija, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctmnt: prognoziran percentil u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala apcmnt: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 22.08.2019. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 02.09.2019.-08.09.2019. ************************************************************** ghid t<33 33<=t<=66 t>66 mnt1 mnt2 eavg anmn2t pctmnt avpmnt 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 0 23 77 100 13.3 14.4 18.2 2.5 86.8 80.2 10.9 11.9 12.9 25 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 0 28 72 100 13.3 14.3 17.4 2.2 83.5 76.4 10.9 12.0 13.0 30 Becej 27400G00 0 26 74 100 15.6 16.6 18.1 2.2 84.9 78.7 13.2 14.2 15.2 30 Beograd 28900G14 0 15 85 100 11.1 12.6 15.6 2.6 89.5 83.2 8.3 9.4 10.5 30 Crni Vrh 38400G13 0 22 78 100 12.1 13.1 15.8 2.2 85.0 79.8 9.8 10.8 11.7 30 Cuprija 39700G22 0 10 90 100 11.1 12.1 13.6 2.3 89.7 84.9 9.1 9.9 10.6 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 0 23 77 100 13.5 14.5 17.7 2.4 86.0 78.5 11.3 12.2 13.1 30 Kikinda 37800G18 0 22 78 100 6.7 7.8 13.3 1.9 85.5 79.6 4.4 5.4 6.3 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 0 22 78 100 13.1 13.9 15.7 2.0 84.4 79.1 11.1 11.9 12.8 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 0 20 80 100 12.9 13.8 14.1 2.1 86.6 80.5 10.9 11.8 12.5 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 0 27 73 100 12.4 13.1 15.2 1.8 82.3 77.3 10.6 11.4 12.1 30 Krusevac 38200G21 0 22 78 100 10.8 11.5 14.3 1.9 83.8 78.9 9.0 9.8 10.5 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 0 23 77 100 11.8 12.3 13.7 1.7 81.1 76.9 9.9 10.7 11.4 30 Leskovac 26200G08 0 32 68 100 13.6 14.3 15.1 1.6 79.8 74.3 11.6 12.5 13.4 30 Loznica 29500G14 0 9 91 100 13.8 14.7 17.3 2.4 89.4 84.1 12.1 12.8 13.4 30 Negotin 38800G20 0 23 77 100 13.3 14.0 14.6 1.9 83.5 78.9 11.3 12.2 13.0 30 Nis 06700G01 0 29 71 100 13.7 14.6 17.0 2.1 83.8 75.8 11.7 12.6 13.4 30 Palic 37000G16 0 21 79 100 11.9 12.8 13.1 1.9 84.6 78.9 9.5 10.5 11.4 30 Pozega 16800G06 0 30 70 100 13.3 14.1 17.4 2.0 82.1 75.3 11.3 12.2 13.0 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 0 25 75 100 7.8 8.4 11.1 1.7 81.8 76.7 5.7 6.6 7.4 30 Sjenica 27900G10 0 26 74 100 12.8 13.7 17.0 2.1 84.2 78.7 10.7 11.6 12.5 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 0 30 70 100 12.7 13.3 16.9 1.8 80.7 72.7 10.9 11.7 12.5 30 Sombor 26600G07 0 32 68 100 12.8 13.5 17.3 1.8 79.8 73.5 10.6 11.6 12.5 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 0 24 76 100 13.1 13.8 15.2 1.9 83.9 77.9 11.1 12.0 12.7 30 Valjevo 28500G11 0 19 81 100 13.4 14.5 17.1 2.5 86.8 80.5 11.0 12.0 12.9 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 0 17 83 100 12.0 12.5 13.2 1.7 81.7 77.9 10.2 10.9 11.6 30 Vranje 18300G04 0 19 81 100 14.4 16.1 17.7 2.6 87.5 81.1 10.9 12.4 13.7 30 Vrsac 39200G15 0 13 87 100 11.6 12.6 16.0 2.5 89.0 83.6 9.8 10.5 11.2 30 Zajecar 36700G16 0 24 76 100 10.8 11.6 12.4 1.7 82.8 77.4 8.4 9.4 10.4 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 0 29 71 100 13.8 14.9 17.9 2.3 84.4 77.5 11.3 12.4 13.4 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.6-0.7 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------