***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** mnt1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama mnt2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anmn2t: prognozirana anomalija, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctmnt: prognoziran percentil u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala apcmnt: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 22.08.2019. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 09.09.2019.-15.09.2019. ************************************************************** ghid t<33 33<=t<=66 t>66 mnt1 mnt2 eavg anmn2t pctmnt avpmnt 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 0 78 22 100 12.1 12.6 15.8 1.0 65.6 61.3 10.8 11.7 12.7 25 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 0 79 21 100 11.9 12.4 15.3 0.8 63.9 60.1 10.4 11.5 12.5 30 Becej 27400G00 0 81 19 100 14.1 14.7 16.0 1.0 67.0 62.5 12.8 13.8 14.7 30 Beograd 28900G14 0 38 62 100 10.9 11.4 13.6 1.4 74.5 68.2 8.4 9.6 10.7 30 Crni Vrh 38400G13 0 41 59 100 11.5 11.5 13.3 1.0 66.9 63.3 9.2 10.3 11.4 30 Cuprija 39700G22 0 37 63 100 10.6 11.0 12.0 1.3 74.6 68.4 8.5 9.5 10.5 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 0 78 22 100 12.2 12.7 15.5 0.9 65.3 60.9 10.8 11.8 12.7 30 Kikinda 37800G18 0 40 60 100 6.7 6.5 11.5 0.8 65.9 62.2 4.2 5.4 6.5 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 0 41 59 100 12.7 12.7 13.4 0.9 66.5 63.1 10.7 11.7 12.6 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 0 40 60 100 12.4 12.3 12.0 0.9 66.6 62.9 10.3 11.3 12.3 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 0 39 61 100 12.0 11.8 12.9 0.9 66.2 62.4 9.8 10.9 11.8 30 Krusevac 38200G21 0 40 60 100 10.5 10.3 12.1 0.8 65.3 61.8 8.4 9.4 10.4 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 0 38 62 100 11.3 11.1 11.3 0.8 64.8 61.9 9.1 10.1 11.1 30 Leskovac 26200G08 0 82 18 100 12.2 12.6 13.2 0.7 62.7 60.3 10.9 11.9 12.8 30 Loznica 29500G14 0 38 62 100 13.2 13.7 14.9 1.5 76.4 69.5 11.1 12.1 13.0 30 Negotin 38800G20 0 37 63 100 12.9 12.9 12.3 1.0 68.9 64.5 10.6 11.7 12.7 30 Nis 06700G01 0 78 22 100 12.4 12.8 15.0 0.8 64.1 60.1 11.1 12.0 12.9 30 Palic 37000G16 0 81 19 100 10.4 11.0 11.1 0.8 65.5 62.3 8.9 10.0 11.0 30 Pozega 16800G06 0 79 21 100 12.0 12.4 15.4 0.8 63.6 60.0 10.7 11.6 12.5 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 0 80 20 100 6.6 7.1 9.1 0.7 63.5 60.9 5.1 6.2 7.3 30 Sjenica 27900G10 0 81 19 100 11.6 12.2 14.9 0.9 65.9 62.3 10.1 11.2 12.3 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 0 78 22 100 11.5 11.9 15.0 0.8 63.8 60.3 10.1 11.1 12.0 30 Sombor 26600G07 0 81 19 100 11.4 11.8 15.3 0.7 62.9 59.9 10.0 11.0 12.0 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 0 81 19 100 11.8 12.4 13.1 0.9 66.1 62.5 10.4 11.4 12.4 30 Valjevo 28500G11 0 38 62 100 12.6 12.6 14.5 1.1 67.5 63.1 10.4 11.5 12.5 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 0 79 21 100 10.8 11.3 11.2 0.8 64.4 61.4 9.4 10.4 11.3 30 Vranje 18300G04 0 78 22 100 12.2 12.9 15.2 1.0 67.0 62.4 10.5 11.7 12.9 30 Vrsac 39200G15 0 38 62 100 11.1 11.7 13.9 1.5 75.9 69.2 8.9 10.0 11.0 30 Zajecar 36700G16 0 81 19 100 9.6 10.2 10.6 0.8 65.1 62.0 8.1 9.2 10.3 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 0 79 21 100 12.3 12.8 15.7 0.9 65.1 60.9 10.9 11.9 12.9 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.6-0.7 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------