***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** mnt1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama mnt2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anmn2t: prognozirana anomalija, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctmnt: prognoziran percentil u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala apcmnt: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 22.08.2019. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 16.09.2019.-22.09.2019. ************************************************************** ghid t<33 33<=t<=66 t>66 mnt1 mnt2 eavg anmn2t pctmnt avpmnt 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 0 80 20 100 11.5 11.9 14.6 0.8 63.4 58.7 10.1 11.1 12.1 25 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 0 79 21 100 11.3 11.6 14.2 0.6 61.2 57.3 9.9 10.9 11.9 30 Becej 27400G00 0 80 20 100 13.6 13.9 14.7 0.6 61.9 57.8 12.2 13.2 14.1 30 Beograd 28900G14 0 40 60 100 9.6 9.8 12.2 1.1 70.2 64.7 7.6 8.6 9.5 30 Crni Vrh 38400G13 0 42 58 100 11.4 11.3 12.2 0.8 65.4 61.2 9.2 10.3 11.4 30 Cuprija 39700G22 0 34 66 100 10.4 10.6 10.8 1.1 72.4 67.6 8.4 9.3 10.2 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 0 79 21 100 11.6 11.9 14.4 0.7 62.2 58.0 10.3 11.2 12.1 30 Kikinda 37800G18 0 82 18 100 5.5 6.1 10.4 0.8 65.7 62.3 4.1 5.2 6.1 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 0 80 20 100 11.6 12.1 12.3 0.8 64.7 60.6 10.3 11.3 12.2 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 0 81 19 100 11.3 11.9 11.0 0.8 66.3 62.3 10.0 11.0 11.9 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 0 43 57 100 11.5 11.5 11.8 0.9 66.4 62.4 9.7 10.6 11.4 30 Krusevac 38200G21 0 84 16 100 9.7 10.2 11.1 0.8 66.4 62.5 8.5 9.4 10.2 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 0 85 15 100 10.3 11.1 10.5 1.0 68.4 63.8 9.0 10.0 10.9 30 Leskovac 26200G08 0 80 20 100 11.8 12.1 12.1 0.6 60.8 57.6 10.6 11.5 12.4 30 Loznica 29500G14 0 38 62 100 12.6 12.8 13.5 1.1 71.1 65.3 10.8 11.7 12.5 30 Negotin 38800G20 0 44 56 100 12.3 12.5 11.3 1.1 69.6 64.8 10.4 11.4 12.3 30 Nis 06700G01 0 79 21 100 11.7 11.9 13.8 0.6 60.5 57.1 10.4 11.4 12.2 30 Palic 37000G16 0 79 21 100 10.2 10.9 10.1 0.9 67.0 63.1 8.9 9.9 10.8 30 Pozega 16800G06 0 79 21 100 11.6 11.8 14.2 0.6 60.6 56.9 10.2 11.2 12.1 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 0 82 18 100 6.3 7.0 8.3 0.8 66.8 63.4 5.1 6.0 6.9 30 Sjenica 27900G10 0 81 19 100 11.2 11.6 13.7 0.7 63.0 58.9 9.9 10.8 11.8 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 0 80 20 100 10.8 11.0 13.8 0.6 60.3 56.8 9.5 10.5 11.4 30 Sombor 26600G07 0 78 22 100 11.1 11.3 14.1 0.5 59.5 56.1 9.6 10.7 11.7 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 0 79 21 100 11.2 11.7 12.0 0.7 64.5 60.5 10.0 10.9 11.7 30 Valjevo 28500G11 0 82 18 100 11.7 12.4 13.3 0.9 65.3 60.5 10.3 11.4 12.4 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 0 85 15 100 10.4 11.1 10.3 0.9 67.0 62.9 9.3 10.2 11.0 30 Vranje 18300G04 0 82 18 100 11.8 12.5 14.1 0.9 65.6 60.4 10.1 11.4 12.6 30 Vrsac 39200G15 0 39 61 100 10.9 11.1 12.5 1.1 71.4 65.9 9.0 9.9 10.8 30 Zajecar 36700G16 0 80 20 100 9.2 9.8 9.6 0.8 65.7 62.2 7.8 8.8 9.8 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 0 79 21 100 11.8 12.1 14.5 0.7 61.8 57.6 10.3 11.4 12.4 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.6-0.7 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------